Kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg tab tom ntsib kev nce nqi "keeb kwm" hauv xyoo 2025, uas yog los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov khoom thiab kev faib tawm tus nqi thoob plaws hauv cov saw hlau muab khoom. Hauv qab no yog kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm cov tsav tsheb tom qab kev nce nqi, qhov laj thawj tom qab kev sib txawv ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, txoj hauv kev rau kev hloov pauv kev lag luam, thiab cov cib fim peev txheej.
I. Cov Yam Uas Ua Rau Tus Nqi Nce Siab
1. Kev Hloov Pauv Tshiab hauv Cov Khoom Siv Raw
- Kev tsis sib npaug ntawm kev muab roj av thiab kev thov roj av: OPEC+ txo kev tsim khoom ua ke nrog kev loj hlob tsawg los ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom uas tsis yog OPEC tau ua rau Brent roj av nyob saum $ 100 / barrel.
- Kev thov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab ntau heev: Tus nqi Lithium carbonate (qib kev lag luam rau LFP roj teeb) tau nce 120% YoY, thaum DMC electrolyte solvent tau hla dhau ¥ 10,000 / ton cim.
- Cov nqi carbon uas pom tseeb: Cov nqi CBAM carbon ntawm EU tam sim no suav nrog cov tshuaj lom neeg yooj yim xws li ammonia thiab methanol.
2. Kev Ruaj Ntseg Sab Kev Muab Khoom
- Kev tsiv chaw muaj peev xwm hauv Tebchaws Europe: BASF thiab lwm lub tuam txhab loj kaw 30% ntawm lub peev xwm tsim ammonia hauv lub tebchaws Yelemees, hloov chaw tsim khoom mus rau ntug dej hiav txwv Gulf Coast hauv Tebchaws Meskas.
- Kev hloov pauv sab kev muab khoom hauv Suav teb 2.0: Cov kev xav tau kev txhim kho ib puag ncig thiab kev siv tshuab hauv kev lag luam zas xim thiab titanium dioxide ua rau cov neeg tsim khoom me thiab nruab nrab tawm sai dua.
- Cov teeb meem kev thauj mus los hauv ntiaj teb: Kev kub ntxhov ntawm Hiav Txwv Liab ua rau tus nqi xa khoom ntawm Asia-Tebchaws Europe nce 300%, ua rau tus nqi sib txawv rau cov khoom lag luam uas cuam tshuam nrog kev thauj mus los xws li TDI dav dua.
3. Kev Them Nqi Dhau Los Ntawm Kev Hloov Pauv Tshuab
- Kev lag luam ntawm cov khoom siv bio-based: Cov nqi PLA kim dua 40% piv rau PE ib txwm muaj, nrog rau Apple thiab Tesla sib cog lus ntev.
- Kev tsim cov tshuaj semiconductor hauv zos: Cov nqi hydrofluoric acid qib hluav taws xob uas huv heev tshaj $ 50,000 / ton, nrog rau 15% siab dua lwm cov kev xaiv Nyiv / Kaus Lim Qab Teb.
II. Daim Ntawv Qhia Txog Qhov Sib Txawv ntawm Cov Nyiaj Tau Los
| Tshooj | Kev Hloov Pauv ROE (2024 vs. 2025) | Kev nthuav dav ntawm tus nqi | Cov Tsav Tsheb Tseem Ceeb |
| Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob Tshiab | +8.2% → 21.5% | 35-50% | Kev tshawb pom tshiab ntawm cov roj teeb solid-state |
| Cov Tshuaj Loj | -3.5% → 6.8% | 10-15% | Qhov tsis zoo ntawm txoj kev siv thee |
| Cov Tshuaj Tshwj Xeeb | +5.1% → 18.3% | 25-40% | Kev thov khoom siv tsheb sib dua |
| Cov tshuaj agrochemicals | +2.3% → 12.7% | 18-22% | Kev txais yuav cov qoob loo GMO + kev kub ntxhov hauv South America |
III. Kev Hloov Tus Nqi hla Txoj Kev Muab Khoom
1. Cov Neeg Tuav Cov Khoom Siv Sab Sauv (piv txwv li, cov neeg tsim khoom phosphate & lithium) tswj hwm lub hwj chim ntawm kev txiav txim siab tus nqi, nrog rau cov tuam txhab zoo li Yuntianhua ua tiav > 50% cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho hauv ib lub hlis twg.
2. Cov Ntu Nruab Nrab Uas Muaj Kev Cuam Tshuam Siab:
- Fluoropolymers: Cov nqi ua cov khoom siv cais PVDF nce mus txog ¥ 80,000 / ton.
- Cov tshuaj lom neeg uas muaj purity siab heev: Cov kev xav tau ntawm kev purity ntawm isopropanol rau semiconductor tau nce ntxiv ntawm 99.99% mus rau 99.9999%.
3. Cov Chaw Muab Kev Pabcuam Kho Kom Haum Rau Cov Neeg Siv Khoom: Covestro tau tsim cov qauv "them nyiaj rau kev ua tau zoo", ua rau cov neeg siv khoom khaws cia tau 30%.
IV. Xyoo 2025 Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb
1. Cov Qhov Rai Hloov Kho Tshuab:
- Qhov zoo ntawm kev siv Ethane cracking txo qis, nrog rau PDH project ROI poob qis dua 5%.
- Cov nqi tsim khoom BDO uas yog bio-based poob 25% piv rau cov kev siv roj av.
2. Kev Rov Kho Dua Hauv Cheeb Tsam:
- Lub chaw ua tshuaj sulfur hauv Middle East: Saudi's SABIC tau tsim lub Hoobkas sulfuric acid pheej yig uas muaj peev xwm tsim tau 2M tonnes/xyoo.
- Cov tshuaj pleev xim sab hnub tuaj Es Xias Qab Teb: Nippon Paint Vietnam ua haujlwm ntawm 120% kev siv peev xwm.
3. Kev Rov Ntsuam Xyuas Dua ESG:
- Cov phiaj xwm ammonia uas siv hydrogen ua cov khoom siv ntsuab tau txais 3 npaug ntawm tus nqi them rau kev ntsuas tus nqi.
- EU txwv tsis pub siv cov khoom uas muaj PFAS tsav > 60% CAGR rau lwm txoj hauv kev.
V. Daim Ntawv Teev Kev Txiav Txim Siab Txog Kev Nqis Peev
Cov Kev Npaj Txhij Rau Kev Faib Nyiaj Ua Ntej:
- Cov ntaub ntawv uas muaj kev thaiv siab: Aramid honeycomb cores, silicon carbide precursors.
- Cov txheej txheem cuam tshuam: Plasma-based adiponitrile synthesis, CO₂-rau-DMC hloov pauv.
- Cov yeej zais cia: Cov tshuaj pleev xim Photoresist, cov sealants qib aerospace.
Cov Lus Ceeb Toom Txog Kev Pheej Hmoo:
- Tebchaws Meskas yuav tsub se 15% rau cov khoom siv bio-based hauv Suav teb (siv tau rau Q3 2025).
- Kev tshawb pom tshiab txog roj teeb sodium-ion yuav ua rau kev xav tau cov khoom siv lithium tsawg zuj zus.
Txij li xyoo 2008 los, kev lag luam no tab tom hloov kho nws txoj kev lag luam tseem ceeb tshaj plaws. Cov tuam txhab uas muaj kev sib txawv ntawm thev naus laus zis thiab kev sib koom ua ke ntsug, nrog rau cov neeg ua si tshwj xeeb uas tuav daim ntawv tso cai tsim khoom tsawg, yog cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb. Thaum muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi, cov tuam txhab uas tswj cov khoom muag hauv qab 30 hnub yuav ua rau muaj kev ruaj khov ntawm cov nyiaj tau los.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Tsib Hlis-30-2025