Kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg tau ntsib "keeb kwm" tus nqi nce siab hauv 2025, uas tau tsav los ntawm kev hloov kho ntawm cov khoom siv-xav tau zoo thiab kev faib tawm ntawm tus nqi thoob plaws cov khoom siv. Hauv qab no yog ib qho kev soj ntsuam ntawm cov tsav tsheb tom qab tus nqi nce, lub logic tom qab cov txiaj ntsig sib txawv, txoj hauv kev rau kev tsim kho kev lag luam, thiab cov peev txheej peev.
I. Cov neeg tsav tsheb sib sib zog nqus ntawm tus nqi nce siab
1. Kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv raw
- Cov roj Crude mov-xav tsis txaus: OPEC + kev txiav cov khoom ua ke nrog kev loj hlob tsawg los ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom tsis yog OPEC tau khaws Brent roj av siab tshaj $ 100 / chim.
- Kev thov tawg rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab: Lithium carbonate (qib kev lag luam rau LFP roj teeb) cov nqi tau nce 120% YoY, thaum DMC electrolyte hnyav tau tawg los ntawm ¥ 10,000 / tuj cim.
- Cov nqi pa roj carbon monoxide: EU's CBAM carbon tariffs tam sim no npog cov tshuaj lom neeg xws li hluavtaws ammonia thiab methanol.
2. Cov qauv khoom siv-Sab Tightness
- European muaj peev xwm hloov chaw: BASF thiab lwm lub tuam txhab loj tau kaw 30% ntawm lub teb chaws Yelemees lub peev xwm hluavtaws ammonia, hloov ntau lawm rau US Gulf Coast.
- Tuam Tshoj cov khoom-sab hloov kho 2.0: Environmental thiab technical upgrade yuav tsum tau nyob rau hauv dye thiab titanium dioxide industries accelerated tawm ntawm me me mus rau nruab nrab producers.
- Geopolitical logistics bottlenecks: Red Hiav txwv ntsoog ua rau 300% surge nyob rau hauv Asia-Europe shipping nqi, widening nqi kis rau thauj-sensitive khoom zoo li TDI.
3. Nqi dhau los ntawm Kev Siv Tshuab
- Kev lag luam ntawm cov ntaub ntawv bio-based: PLA tus nqi hais kom tus nqi 40% tshaj li PE ib txwm muaj, nrog Apple thiab Tesla xauv hauv cov ntawv cog lus mus sij hawm ntev.
- Localization ntawm semiconductor chemicals: Ultra-ntshiab hluav taws xob-qib hydrofluoric acid nqi tshaj $50,000/tuj, nrog 15% nqi tshaj Japanese/South Kauslim lwm.
II. Profit Divergence Map
| Ntu | ROE Hloov (2024 vs. 2025) | Nqe nthuav dav | Cov Tsav Tsheb Tseem Ceeb |
| Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob Tshiab | +8.2% → 21.5% | 35-50% | Solid-state roj teeb tawg |
| Tej tshuaj | 3.5% → 6.8% | 10-15% | Coal-raws li txoj kev nqi tsis zoo |
| Tshwj xeeb tshuaj | 5.1% → 18.3% | 25-40% | Lub teeb automotive cov ntaub ntawv xav tau |
| Agro-chemicals | 2.3% → 12.7% | 18-22% | GMO qoob loo saws + South American drought |
III. Tus nqi tsiv teb tsaws hla cov khoom siv
1. Cov Neeg Siv Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob (piv txwv li, phosphate & lithium cov neeg tsim khoom) tswj hwm tus nqi zog, nrog rau cov tuam txhab xws li Yuntianhua ua tiav> 50% tag nrho cov paj hauv ib lub hlis twg.
2. Midstream High-Barrier Segments:
- Fluoropolymers: PVDF cais cov khoom ua cov nqi ntaus ¥ 80,000 / tuj.
- Ultra-high-purity chemicals: Semiconductor-qib isopropanol purity yuav tsum tau nce ntawm 99.99% mus rau 99.9999%.
3. Downstream Customization Providers: Cov tuam txhab xws li Covestro tau qhia "them nyiaj-rau-kev ua tau zoo", ua kom cov neeg siv khoom tuav tau 30%.
IV. 2025 Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb Breakthrough Points
1. Technology Hloov Windows:
- Ethane cracking tus nqi kom zoo dua nqaim, nrog PDH project ROI poob qis dua 5%.
- Bio-based BDO cov nqi tsim khoom poob 25% piv rau cov roj av.
2. Regional Rebalancing:
- Middle East sulfur-chemical hub: Saudi's SABIC tau tsim 2M ton / xyoo tus nqi qis sulfuric acid cog.
- Cov neeg Esxias sab hnub tuaj txheej txheej nruab nrab: Nippon Paint Vietnam ua haujlwm ntawm 120% kev siv peev xwm.
3. ESG Revaluation:
- Green hydrogen-based ammonia tej yaam num tau txais 3x tus nqi them nqi.
- EU txwv tsis pub PFAS cov khoom lag luam tsav> 60% CAGR rau lwm txoj hauv kev.
V. Kev Txiav Txim Nyiaj Txiag Matrix
Strategic Allocation Priorities:
- Cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj siab: Aramid honeycomb cores, silicon carbide precursors.
- Cov txheej txheem cuam tshuam: Plasma-based adiponitrile synthesis, CO₂-rau-DMC hloov dua siab tshiab.
- Cov neeg sib tw zais: Photoresist strippers, aerospace-qib sealants.
Risk ceeb toom:
- Teb Chaws Asmeskas tso 15% tariffs rau Suav bio-based cov ntaub ntawv (zoo Q3 2025).
- Sodium-ion roj teeb tawg tuaj yeem rhuav tshem cov khoom siv lithium.
Kev lag luam tab tom tab tom ua nws qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom lag luam rov tsim kho txij li xyoo 2008. Cov tuam txhab uas muaj kev sib txawv ntawm kev siv tshuab thiab kev sib koom ua ke ntsug, nrog rau cov neeg ua si niche tuav cov ntawv tso cai tsawg tsawg, yog qhov tseem ceeb. Amid nce tus nqi volatility, cov tuam txhab tswj xyuas cov khoom muag khoom lag luam nyob rau hauv 30 hnub yuav ua kom pom cov txiaj ntsig zoo dua.
Post lub sij hawm: May-30-2025