Hauv kev lag luam uas muaj ntxhiab hydrocarbon cov saw hlau, yuav luag tsis muaj kev lag luam ncaj qha ntawm cov khoom muaj ntxhiab ntawm Suav teb av loj thiab Tebchaws Meskas. Txawm li cas los xij, Tebchaws Asmeskas tau xa cov khoom tseem ceeb ntawm nws cov khoom qab zib los ntawm Asia, nrog rau cov neeg muag khoom Esxias suav txog 40-55% ntawm Asmeskas kev xa khoom ntawm benzene, paraxylene (PX), toluene, thiab sib xyaw xylenes. Cov kev cuam tshuam tseem ceeb tau txheeb xyuas hauv qab no:
Benzene
Tuam Tshoj yog hnyav ntshuam-dependent rau benzene, nrog South Kauslim ua nws thawj tsum. Ob lub Tuam Tshoj thiab Asmeskas yog cov neeg siv khoom siv benzene, tsis muaj kev lag luam ncaj qha ntawm lawv, txo qhov cuam tshuam ncaj qha ntawm cov nqi se ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam benzene. Hauv 2024, South Kauslim cov khoom siv suav nrog 46% ntawm US benzene ntshuam. Raws li South Kauslim cov ntaub ntawv kev lis kev cai, Kaus Lim Qab Teb tau xa tawm ntau dua 600,000 metric tons ntawm benzene mus rau Asmeskas hauv 2024. Txawm li cas los xij, txij li Q4 2023, lub qhov rais arbitrage ntawm South Kauslim thiab Asmeskas tau kaw, redirecting South Kauslim benzene ntws mus rau Tuam Tshoj - Asia cov neeg siv khoom loj tshaj plaws benzene - kos npe rau kev lag luam nce siab. Yog tias US tariffs raug txwv yam tsis muaj kev zam rau roj av-based benzene, cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb uas tau tsim los rau Asmeskas yuav hloov mus rau Tuam Tshoj, txhawb nqa cov khoom lag luam siab. Hauv qab, kev xa tawm ntawm benzene-derived cov khoom (piv txwv li, cov khoom siv hauv tsev, textiles) tuaj yeem ntsib kev tawm tswv yim tsis zoo vim qhov nce nqi se.
Toluene
Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm toluene tau loj hlob tsis tu ncua nyob rau xyoo tas los no, feem ntau yog tsom rau cov tebchaws Esxias yav Qab Teb thiab Is Nrias teb, nrog kev lag luam ncaj qha nrog Asmeskas Txawm li cas los xij, Asmeskas tau xa cov toluene ntau los ntawm Asia, suav nrog 230,000 metric tons los ntawm Kaus Lim Qab Teb xyoo 2024 (57% ntawm tag nrho US toluene imports). US tariffs tuaj yeem cuam tshuam South Kauslim cov toluene xa tawm mus rau Asmeskas, ua rau muaj kev xa khoom ntau dhau hauv Asia thiab ua rau muaj kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam xws li Southeast Asia thiab Is Nrias teb, muaj peev xwm squeezing Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm.
Xylenes
Tuam Tshoj tseem yog tus xa khoom xa tawm ntawm cov khoom sib xyaw xylenes, tsis muaj kev lag luam ncaj qha nrog Asmeskas Lub Teb Chaws Asmeskas xa cov khoom loj ntawm xylenes, feem ntau los ntawm Kaus Lim Qab Teb (57% ntawm Asmeskas cov khoom xa tuaj raws li HS code 27073000). Txawm li cas los xij, cov khoom no tau suav nrog hauv Asmeskas daim ntawv zam se, txo qhov cuam tshuam rau Asia-US arbitrage cov haujlwm.
Styrene
Teb Chaws Asmeskas yog lub ntiaj teb styrene exporter, feem ntau muab Mexico, South America, thiab Europe, nrog tsawg ntshuam (210,000 metric tons hauv 2024, yuav luag tag nrho los ntawm Canada). Tuam Tshoj lub lag luam styrene yog oversupplyed, thiab anti-dumping txoj cai tau ntev thaiv US-Tuam Tshoj styrene luam. Txawm li cas los xij, Teb Chaws Asmeskas npaj yuav yuam kom 25% tariff rau South Kauslim benzene, uas tej zaum yuav nce Asian styrene mov. Lub caij no, Tuam Tshoj tus styrene-dependent cov khoom siv hauv tsev xa tawm (xws li, cua txias, tub yees) ntsib kev nce nqi ntawm US tariffs (txog ~ 80%), cuam tshuam loj rau cov haujlwm no. Yog li, US tariffs feem ntau yuav cuam tshuam rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam styrene los ntawm kev nce nqi thiab kev xav tau qis qis.
Paraxylene (PX)
Tuam Tshoj xa tawm yuav luag tsis muaj PX thiab tso siab rau kev xa khoom los ntawm Kaus Lim Qab Teb, Nyiv, thiab Sab Qab Teb Asia, tsis muaj kev lag luam ncaj qha rau Asmeskas. Hauv 2024, Kaus Lim Qab Teb tau muab 22.5% ntawm US PX imports (300,000 metric tons, 6% ntawm South Kauslim cov khoom xa tawm). US tariffs yuav txo tau South Kauslim PX ntws mus rau Teb Chaws Asmeskas, tab sis txawm yog hais tias redirected rau Tuam Tshoj, lub ntim yuav muaj kev txwv. Zuag qhia tag nrho, US-Tuam Tshoj tariffs yuav cuam tshuam tsawg heev rau PX khoom tab sis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau kev xa tawm textile thiab khaub ncaws.
Teb Chaws Asmeskas "kev sib tw tariffs" feem ntau yuav hloov pauv thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam ntws ntawm cov pa roj carbon monoxide es tsis yog cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau Tuam Tshoj-Asmeskas kev lag luam. Cov kev pheej hmoo tseem ceeb suav nrog kev xa khoom ntau dhau hauv cov lag luam Esxias, kev sib tw hnyav rau cov chaw xa tawm, thiab kev poob qis los ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom tiav (xws li, khoom siv, textiles). Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam uas muaj ntxhiab yuav tsum taug kev hloov pauv cov saw hlau thiab hloov mus rau kev hloov pauv thoob ntiaj teb cov qauv xav tau.
Post lub sij hawm: Apr-17-2025