Xyoo 2022, nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm tus nqi siab ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob thiab kev loj hlob txuas ntxiv ntawm kev tsim khoom hauv tsev hauv kev lag luam methanol, nws tau dhau los ntawm ib puag ncig ntawm "W" vibration qauv nrog qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm ntau dua 36%.Saib rau pem hauv ntej rau 2023, cov neeg sab hauv kev lag luam ntseeg tias xyoo no kev lag luam methanol tseem yuav ua raws li cov xwm txheej macro thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam.Nrog rau kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau kev sib raug zoo thiab kev hloov kho cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, nws xav tias qhov kev thov ntau lawm yuav loj hlob ib txhij, kev ua lag luam yuav ruaj khov thiab ruaj khov.Nws tseem qhia tau hais tias cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev ua kom muaj peev xwm ua tau qeeb qeeb, kev hloov pauv ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, thiab ntau qhov kev hloov pauv hauv kev ua lag luam.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa khoom tuaj rau hauv kev ua lag luam hauv tsev yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv lub sijhawm thib ob ntawm lub xyoo.
Txoj kev loj hlob ntawm lub peev xwm qeeb
Raws li kev txheeb cais los ntawm Henan Chemical Network, xyoo 2022, kuv lub teb chaws methanol muaj peev xwm tsim tau 5.545 lab tons, thiab lub ntiaj teb tshiab methanol muaj peev xwm tsim tau nyob hauv Suav teb.Raws li qhov kawg ntawm 2022, kuv lub teb chaws tag nrho cov khoom methanol muaj peev xwm yog kwv yees li 113.06 lab tons, suav txog 59% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tag nrho cov peev txheej tsim tau, thiab cov peev txheej tsim tau zoo yog kwv yees li 100 lab tons, nce 5.7% xyoo-rau- xyoo.
Han Hongwei, tus lwm thawj coj ntawm Henan Petroleum thiab Chemical Industry Association, tau hais tias xyoo 2023, kuv lub teb chaws lub peev xwm tsim cov tshuaj methanol tseem nce ntxiv, tab sis qhov kev loj hlob yuav qeeb.Xyoo 2023, kuv lub teb chaws lub peev xwm methanol tshiab yuav yog li 4.9 lab tons.Nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd, tag nrho cov khoom siv methanol hauv tsev yuav ncav cuag 118 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 4.4%.Tam sim no, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab-rau-methanol tau txo qis, feem ntau yog vim kev txhawb nqa ntawm "ob chav carbon" lub hom phiaj thiab kev nqis peev siab ntawm cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg.Txawm hais tias lub peev xwm tshiab tuaj yeem hloov pauv mus rau qhov muaj peev xwm tsim tau tiag tiag yav tom ntej tseem yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo mloog rau txoj cai kev taw qhia ntawm "Tshaj Plaub Tsib Xyoo" kev npaj nyob rau hauv cov kev taw qhia ntawm kev lag luam thee tshiab, nrog rau kev hloov pauv ntawm ib puag ncig. kev tiv thaiv thiab thee txoj cai.
Raws li kev lag luam pem hauv ntej-line cov ntaub ntawv tawm tswv yim, txij li Lub Ib Hlis 29, tus nqi lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm cov methanol hauv tsev tau nce mus rau 2,600 yuan (tus nqi tuj, tib yam hauv qab no), thiab tus nqi chaw nres nkoj txawm nce mus rau 2,800 yuan, txhua hli nce mus txog 13. %."Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev tsim tawm ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab ntawm kev ua lag luam tuaj yeem cuam tshuam nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab nws cia siab tias qhov rov qab los ntawm tus nqi methanol thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo yuav tsum mus ntxiv."Han Hongwei hais.
Kev siv cov qauv hloov
Tus neeg saib xyuas ntawm Zhongyuan Futures Methanol qhov project tau hais tias vim muaj kev tiv thaiv thiab tswj kev kis tus kabmob thiab cov kev lag luam macroeconomic tsis muaj zog, cov qauv siv tshuaj methanol yav tom ntej kuj tseem yuav hloov.Ntawm lawv, txoj kev loj hlob ceev ntawm thee -to -olefins nrog kev noj ntawm 55% yuav qeeb, thiab daim ntawv thov ntawm cov kev lag luam qis qis yuav tsum loj hlob ntxiv.
Cui Huajie, tus thawj coj ntawm Henan Ruiyuanxin Chemical Management, tau hais tias cov kev xav tau ntawm olefins tau dhau los ua tsis muaj zog txij li xyoo 2022, thiab txawm hais tias cov khw muag khoom methanol nyoos tau hloov kho los ntawm kev poob siab, nws tseem muaj qhov siab.Raws li cov nqi siab, thee -to -olefin tswj kev poob ntawm kev poob txhua xyoo.Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov no, txoj kev loj hlob ntawm cov thee-to-olefin pom cov cim ntawm kev qeeb.Nrog rau qhov siab tshaj plaws refining thiab tshuaj sib xyaw ua ke ntawm cov txheej txheem hauv tsev hauv xyoo 2022 -Shenghong refining thiab kev tsim tawm, Slipon methanol olefin (MTO) project ntawm methanol yuav yog 2.4 lab tons hauv txoj kev xav.Qhov xav tau tiag tiag ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm olefins ntawm methanol yuav qeeb ntxiv.
Raws li tus thawj coj ntawm Henan Energy Group, nyob rau hauv cov tsoos downstream nam ntawm methanol, ib tug loj tus naj npawb ntawm acetic acid tej yaam num yuav pib los ntawm 2020 mus rau 2021 nyob rau hauv lub nyiam ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, thiab lub peev xwm ntawm acetic acid tau khaws cia ib xyoos ib zaug nce. 1 lab tons hauv ob xyoos dhau los.Hauv 2023, 1.2 lab tons ntawm acetic acid yuav tsum tau ntxiv, ua raws li 260,000 tons ntawm methane chloride, 180,000 tons ntawm methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) thiab 550,000 tons ntawm N, n-dimethylformamide (DMF).Raws li tag nrho, qhov kev thov loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam methanol hauv qab ib txwm muaj kev nce zuj zus, thiab cov qauv siv methanol hauv tsev rov nthuav tawm ntau txoj kev txhim kho, thiab cov qauv kev noj yuav hloov.Txawm li cas los xij, cov phiaj xwm tsim tawm ntawm cov peev txheej tshiab no hauv kev lag luam hauv qab ib txwm muaj feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv ib nrab thib ob lossis thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo, uas yuav muaj kev txhawb nqa rau kev lag luam methanol hauv 2023.
Kev ua lag luam poob siab yog qhov tsis muaj tseeb
Raws li cov khoom siv tam sim no thiab cov qauv xav tau, Shao Huiwen, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam laus, tau hais tias lub peev xwm methanol hauv tsev tau dhau los ua ib qho kev muaj peev xwm dhau lawm, tab sis vim yog lub xeev tus nqi siab ntawm cov khoom siv methanol tej zaum yuav raug cuam tshuam mus ntxiv, txawm tias. lub peev xwm tshiab methanol tuaj yeem npaj tau rau xyoo 2023 raws li txoj kev npaj raws li txoj kev npaj Kev tsim khoom tseem yuav tsum tau ua raws, thiab kev tsim khoom kuj tseem muaj nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo, uas yuav muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev tsim cov methanol. kev lag luam hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2023.
Los ntawm kev xav ntawm cov txheej txheem tsim khoom ntawm cov khoom siv methanol txawv teb chaws tshiab, lub peev xwm tsim tau yog concentrated nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo.Lub siab ntawm kev xa khoom tuaj yeem tuaj yeem pom tseeb nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo.Yog tias tus nqi qis-nqi ntshuam nce ntxiv, kev lag luam methanol hauv tsev tseem yuav ntsib kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom lag luam tuaj txawv teb chaws hauv ib nrab xyoo.
Tsis tas li ntawd, xyoo 2023, kev lag luam qis qis ntawm methanol thiab cov kev lag luam tawm tshiab tau npaj los tsim cov chav tshiab, ntawm cov uas muaj peev xwm tshiab ntawm MTO yog kev sib koom ua ke ntau lawm, methanol huv roj muaj kev lag luam nce ntxiv hauv lub zog tshiab. , methanol xav tau yuav nce ntxiv, tab sis qhov kev loj hlob tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv qeeb.Kev lag luam methanol hauv tsev tag nrho yog tseem nyob rau hauv lub xeev ntawm oversupply.Nws cia siab tias kev lag luam methanol hauv tsev yuav nce siab ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd ruaj khov hauv 2023, thiab qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm kev hloov pauv hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tsis tuaj yeem txiav tawm.Txawm li cas los xij, vim yog cov nqi siab ntawm cov thee thiab cov nkev roj, nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau kev txhim kho methanol ua lag luam nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, thiab tag nrho kev poob siab yog inevitable.
Kev lag luam sab hauv tau hais tias qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm methanol muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej no yuav tsum nyob hauv thaj tsam ntawm 3% mus rau 4%.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nrog rau kev lag luam kev koom ua ke thiab kev hloov kho thev naus laus zis, ntau tshaj li ib lab tons ntawm methanol rau olefin kev koom ua ke cov cuab yeej tseem yog lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb, cov pa roj carbon monoxide ntsuab thiab lwm cov txheej txheem tawm tshiab yuav yog ib qho ntxiv.Methanol rau aromatics thiab methanol rau roj av kuj tseem yuav tau txais kev txhim kho tshiab nrog kev nthuav dav ntawm kev lag luam nplai, tab sis tus kheej txhawb nqa kev sib koom ua ke tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm txoj kev loj hlob, tus nqi hluav taws xob yuav nyob rau hauv tes ntawm cov tuam txhab loj, thiab Qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev hloov pauv loj hauv kev lag luam methanol yuav tsum tau txhim kho.
Post lub sij hawm: Feb-08-2023