Xyoo 2022, nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm tus nqi siab ntawm cov nqi thee nyoos thiab kev loj hlob ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv tsev hauv kev lag luam methanol hauv tsev, nws tau dhau los ntawm qhov sib txawv ntawm "W" kev co nrog qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm ntau dua 36%. Saib rau pem hauv ntej rau xyoo 2023, cov neeg sab hauv kev lag luam ntseeg tias xyoo no kev lag luam methanol tseem yuav ua raws li qhov xwm txheej macro thiab kev lag luam voj voog. Nrog kev hloov kho ntawm kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov thiab kev hloov kho ntawm cov nqi raw khoom, nws xav tias qhov kev thov tsim khoom yuav loj hlob tib lub sijhawm, kev ua lag luam yuav ruaj khov thiab ruaj khov. Nws kuj qhia txog cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev qeeb qeeb ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom, kev hloov pauv ntawm cov qauv neeg siv khoom, thiab ntau qhov kev hloov pauv hauv kev ua lag luam. Tib lub sijhawm, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa khoom tuaj rau kev ua lag luam hauv tsev yuav raug cuam tshuam feem ntau hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej.
Qhov kev loj hlob ntawm lub peev xwm qeeb zuj zus
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Henan Chemical Network, xyoo 2022, kuv lub teb chaws muaj peev xwm tsim methanol yog 5.545 lab tons, thiab lub peev xwm tsim methanol tshiab thoob ntiaj teb tau tsom mus rau hauv Suav teb. Txog rau thaum xaus ntawm xyoo 2022, kuv lub teb chaws muaj peev xwm tsim methanol tag nrho yog li ntawm 113.06 lab tons, suav txog 59% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tag nrho cov peev xwm tsim khoom, thiab lub peev xwm tsim khoom zoo yog li ntawm 100 lab tons, nce 5.7% xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Han Hongwei, tus lwm thawj coj ntawm Henan Petroleum thiab Chemical Industry Association, tau hais tias xyoo 2023, kuv lub teb chaws lub peev xwm tsim methanol tseem niaj hnub loj hlob, tab sis qhov kev loj hlob yuav qeeb qeeb. Xyoo 2023, kuv lub teb chaws lub peev xwm tsim methanol tshiab yuav yog li 4.9 lab tons. Lub sijhawm ntawd, tag nrho cov peev xwm tsim methanol hauv tsev yuav ncav cuag 118 lab tons, ib xyoos-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 4.4%. Tam sim no, cov cuab yeej tsim thee-rau-methanol tshiab tau txo qis heev, feem ntau yog vim kev txhawb nqa ntawm lub hom phiaj "ob chav carbon" thiab tus nqi peev txheej siab ntawm cov haujlwm tshuaj thee. Seb lub peev xwm tshiab puas tuaj yeem hloov pauv mus rau hauv lub peev xwm tsim khoom tiag tiag yav tom ntej kuj yuav tsum tau them sai sai rau cov lus qhia txoj cai ntawm "Plan Kaum Plaub Tsib Xyoos" kev npaj hauv kev lag luam tshuaj thee tshiab, nrog rau kev hloov pauv hauv kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab cov cai thee.
Raws li cov lus tawm tswv yim ntawm kev ua lag luam pem hauv ntej, txij li Lub Ib Hlis 29, tus nqi lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm cov tshuaj methanol hauv tebchaws tau nce mus txog 2,600 yuan (tus nqi tuj, tib yam hauv qab no), thiab tus nqi chaw nres nkoj txawm nce mus txog 2,800 yuan, qhov nce txhua hli tau txog 13%. "Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev tso tawm ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab rau kev ua lag luam yuav raug cuam tshuam rau ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, thiab nws xav tias qhov rov qab los ntawm qis tshaj plaws ntawm tus nqi methanol thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo yuav txuas ntxiv mus." Han Hongwei hais.
Kev hloov pauv ntawm cov qauv kev siv khoom
Tus neeg uas saib xyuas qhov project Zhongyuan Futures Methanol tau hais tias vim yog kev tiv thaiv thiab tswj kev sib kis thiab kev qaug zog ntawm macroeconomic tsis muaj zog, cov qauv kev siv methanol yav tom ntej kuj yuav hloov pauv. Ntawm lawv, qhov ceev ntawm kev tsim cov thee -rau -olefins nrog kev siv li ntawm 55% yuav qeeb qeeb, thiab kev siv cov kev lag luam downstream ib txwm muaj yuav loj hlob dua.
Cui Huajie, tus neeg saib xyuas Henan Ruiyuanxin's Chemical Management, tau hais tias qhov kev xav tau ntawm olefins tau qaug zog txij li xyoo 2022, thiab txawm hais tias kev lag luam methanol nyoos tau raug kho los ntawm kev poob siab, nws tseem nyob siab heev. Nyob rau hauv cov nqi siab, thee - rau -olefin tswj kev poob ntawm kev poob thoob plaws hauv ib xyoos. Cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov no, kev txhim kho ntawm thee - rau -olefin tau qhia cov cim ntawm kev qeeb qeeb. Nrog rau qhov siab tshaj plaws refining thiab tshuaj lom neeg kev koom ua ke ntawm cov txheej txheem hauv tsev hauv xyoo 2022 -Shenghong refining thiab kev tsim khoom tiav, Slipon methanol olefin (MTO) project ntawm methanol yuav yog 2.4 lab tons hauv kev xav. Qhov kev thov tiag tiag ntawm olefins ntawm methanol yuav qeeb qeeb ntxiv.
Raws li tus thawj coj ntawm Henan Energy Group, nyob rau hauv qhov kev lag luam methanol ib txwm muaj, yuav muaj ntau qhov project acetic acid uas yuav pib txij xyoo 2020 txog 2021 raws li kev nyiam cov nyiaj tau los siab, thiab lub peev xwm tsim cov acetic acid tau khaws cia txhua xyoo ntawm 1 lab tons hauv ob xyoos dhau los. Xyoo 2023, yuav muaj 1.2 lab tons ntawm acetic acid ntxiv, ua raws li 260,000 tons ntawm methane chloride, 180,000 tons ntawm methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) thiab 550,000 tons ntawm N, n-dimethylformamide (DMF). Tag nrho, kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov ntawm kev lag luam methanol ib txwm muaj kev nce ntxiv, thiab cov qauv kev siv methanol hauv tsev dua qhia txog kev loj hlob sib txawv, thiab cov qauv kev siv yuav hloov pauv. Txawm li cas los xij, cov phiaj xwm tsim khoom ntawm cov peev xwm tshiab no hauv kev lag luam ib txwm muaj feem ntau nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo lossis thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo, uas yuav muaj kev txhawb nqa tsawg rau kev lag luam methanol hauv xyoo 2023.
Kev poob siab hauv kev lag luam yog qhov tsis zam
Raws li cov qauv kev muab khoom thiab kev thov tam sim no, Shao Huiwen, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam laus, tau hais tias lub peev xwm tsim cov tshuaj methanol hauv tsev twb tau ntsib qee qhov kev muaj peev xwm ntau dhau lawm, tab sis vim yog tus nqi siab ntawm cov khoom siv methanol raw tseem yuav raug cuam tshuam, seb puas tuaj yeem npaj lub peev xwm tsim cov tshuaj methanol tshiab hauv xyoo 2023 raws li txoj kev npaj raws li txoj kev npaj. Kev tsim khoom tseem yuav tsum tau soj ntsuam, thiab kev tsim khoom kuj tseem nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, uas yuav zoo rau kev tsim cov lag luam methanol hauv ib nrab xyoo thawj zaug ntawm xyoo 2023.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov txheej txheem tsim cov khoom siv methanol tshiab txawv teb chaws, lub peev xwm tsim khoom tau tsom mus rau ib nrab xyoo tom ntej. Qhov kev nyuaj siab ntawm kev xa khoom tuaj yeem pom tseeb hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej. Yog tias kev xa khoom pheej yig nce ntxiv, kev lag luam methanol hauv tsev tseem yuav ntsib kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj rau ib nrab xyoo tom ntej.
Ntxiv mus, xyoo 2023, kev lag luam methanol thiab cov lag luam tshiab tau npaj yuav tsim cov khoom tshiab, uas yog lub peev xwm tshiab ntawm MTO feem ntau yog kev tsim khoom sib xyaw, roj huv methanol muaj kev lag luam nce ntxiv hauv kev lag luam lub zog tshiab, kev thov methanol yuav nce ntxiv, tab sis qhov kev loj hlob yuav txuas ntxiv qeeb. Kev lag luam methanol hauv tsev tseem nyob hauv qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev muab khoom ntau dhau. Nws xav tias kev lag luam methanol hauv tsev yuav nce ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd ruaj khov hauv xyoo 2023, thiab qhov ua tau ntawm kev hloov kho hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej tsis tuaj yeem raug tshem tawm. Txawm li cas los xij, vim yog tus nqi siab ntawm cov thee nyoos thiab roj av, nws nyuaj rau txhim kho kev lag luam methanol hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, thiab qhov kev poob siab tag nrho yog qhov tsis zam.
Cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam tau hais tias qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm methanol hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej no yuav nyob rau hauv qhov ntau ntawm 3% txog 4%. Tib lub sijhawm, nrog rau kev koom ua ke ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis, ntau dua ib lab tons ntawm methanol rau olefin kev koom ua ke tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb, cov pa roj carbon ntsuab thiab lwm yam txheej txheem tshiab yuav yog ib qho ntxiv. Methanol rau aromatics thiab methanol rau roj av kuj tseem yuav tau txais cov cib fim tshiab hauv kev txhim kho nrog kev nthuav dav ntawm qhov ntsuas kev lag luam, tab sis cov cuab yeej txhawb nqa tus kheej tseem yog qhov sib txawv ntawm kev txhim kho, lub zog nqi yuav nyob hauv tes ntawm cov tuam txhab loj, thiab qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev hloov pauv loj hauv kev lag luam methanol yuav raug txhim kho.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Ob Hlis-08-2023