Ua raws li kev lag luam nyuj ntev ntev nyob rau xyoo 2021, qhov kev nce ntxiv txuas ntxiv mus txog xyoo 2022. Nws tau nyob hauv ib qho kev caij unilateral thiab muaj kev ruaj ntseg siab rau 11 lub hlis.Nyob ze rau qhov kawg ntawm 2022, tus qauv ntawm polysilicon kev ua lag luam tau tshwm sim ntawm qhov hloov pauv, thiab thaum kawg xaus ntawm qhov nce 37.31%.
Tsis tu ncua nce unilaterally rau 11 lub hlis
Kev lag luam polysilicon hauv 2022 tau nce 67.61% hauv thawj 11 lub hlis.Saib rov qab ntawm kev lag luam sib txawv ntawm lub xyoo, nws tuaj yeem faib ua peb theem.Nyob rau hauv thawj yim lub hlis, nws yog nyob rau hauv ib tug unilateral nce.Nws tseem siab nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli mus txog Kaum Ib Hlis, thiab lub Kaum Ob Hlis, nws tau hloov kho sai heev.
Thawj theem yog thawj yim lub hlis ntawm 2022. Lub khw polysilicon muaj kev caij tsheb loj, nrog rau lub sijhawm ntawm 67.8%.Thaum pib ntawm 2022, lub lag luam polysilicon tau booming txhua txoj kev tom qab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 176,000 yuan (tus nqi tuj, tib yam hauv qab no).Thaum kawg ntawm Lub Yim Hli, tus nqi nruab nrab tau raug chwv mus rau 295,300 yuan, thiab ib tus neeg tsim khoom tau tshaj tawm tshaj 300,000 yuan.Thaum lub sij hawm no, tag nrho cov kev ua tau zoo ntawm lub photovoltaic kev lag luam saw muaj zog, thiab kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm lub ntsiab downstream silicon silicon kev lag luam nyob rau hauv lub ntsiab downstream silicon txuas ntxiv mus, thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg kev ua lag luam yog loj heev.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, vim tus nqi siab ntawm cov khoom siv silicon imported, lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv superimposed tsis zoo li qhov xav tau.Cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam tau khaws cia hauv kev saib xyuas cais, thiab cov khoom siv ntawm polycrystalline silicon tsis raug tso cai kom nce ntxiv.
Qhov thib ob theem yog txij lub Cuaj Hli mus txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022. Lub sij hawm lub sij hawm, lub lag luam polysilicon yog siab-theem stability, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab yog khaws cia ntawm li 295,000 yuan, thiab lub voj voog poob me ntsis los ntawm 0.11%.Nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, kev tsim cov khoom lag luam polysilicon tau ua haujlwm, kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi nce ntxiv, thiab cov tuam txhab kev saib xyuas rov pib ua haujlwm ib zaug, cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv, thiab txo qis kev lag luam.Txawm li cas los xij, cov hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm polycrystalline silicon mov thiab kev thov tseem muaj qhov sib npaug nruj, thiab tus nqi tseem muaj zog, thiab nws tseem siab.
Qhov thib peb theem yog nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022. Kev lag luam polysilicon sai sai rov qab los ntawm qib siab ntawm 295,000 yuan thaum pib ntawm lub hli, nrog rau txhua hli poob ntawm 18.08%.Qhov kev txo qis no feem ntau yog vim kev ua haujlwm siab ntawm kev lag luam polysilicon.Cov tuam txhab loj loj pib tag nrho cov kab.Cov khoom lag luam tseem nce ntxiv piv nrog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, thiab kev xa khoom sai ntawm cov lag luam tau qeeb.Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev thov, lub downstream ntawm lub caij ntuj no qhia tau hais tias tsis muaj zog, tus nqi ntawm silicon wafers yog qis dua, thiab lub davhlau ya nyob twg kev ua lag luam kuj poob ib txhij.Raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 30, 2022, qhov nruab nrab polysilicon ua lag luam tus nqi kho rau 241,700 yuan, nqis 18.7% los ntawm lub xyoo siab ntawm 297,300 yuan thaum kawg lub Cuaj Hli.
Xav tau tsav txhua txoj kev
Thoob plaws hauv kev ua lag luam txhua xyoo ntawm polysilicon xyoo 2022, Guangfa Futures Analyst Ji Yuanfei ntseeg tias xyoo 2022, vim muaj kev xav tau zoo rau kev teeb tsa photovoltaic, lub khw polysilicon yeej ib txwm nyob rau hauv cov khoom luv luv, uas tau ua rau cov nqi nce ntxiv.
Wang Yanqing, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm CITIC Futures Futures Industrial Products, kuj tuav tib qhov kev xav.Nws tau hais tias kev ua lag luam photovoltaic yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ntawm polysilicon.Raws li kev lag luam photovoltaic tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm pheej yig hauv Internet hauv 2021, lub voj voog kev vam meej tau qhib dua.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm National Energy Administration, nyob rau hauv 2021, tus naj npawb ntawm photovoltaic installation tshiab yog 54.88GW, dhau los ua qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm lub xyoo;Nyob rau hauv 2022, lub domestic photovoltaic kev lag luam txoj kev vam meej mus ntxiv.Qhov ntim txhua xyoo ntawm lub xyoo-rau-xyoo nce siab li 105.83% xyoo-rau-xyoo, uas qhia txog qhov tshwm sim loj ntawm qhov kev thov davhlau ya nyob twg.
Nyob rau lub sijhawm no, cuam tshuam los ntawm kev npaj txhij txog hluav taws hauv cov khoom siv silicon hauv Xinjiang thiab "lub nroog hnyav" Sichuan kev paub dhau los ntawm Sichuan hauv kev tsim cov khoom siv silicon, qhov nro ntawm lub khw polysilicon nce ntxiv thiab txhawb kev nce nqi ntxiv.
Lub inflection point ntawm ntau lawm muaj peev xwm yog tshwm sim
Txawm li cas los xij, thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, kev lag luam polysilicon tau "hloov qauv", thiab tau hloov pauv los ntawm Gao Ge qhov kev nce qib sai sai rau kev poob, thiab txawm tias kev lag luam hauv kev lag luam tau txiav txim siab tias "qhov av nkos" ntawm lub khw polysilicon yog qhov kawg.
"Thaum ntxov 2022, lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab ntawm polysilicon tau tso tawm ib zaug.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nyob rau hauv cov txiaj ntsig siab-tsav, ntau tus neeg tshiab tau nkag mus rau hauv qhov kev ua si thiab nthuav dav cov qub players, thiab cov peev txheej tsim khoom hauv tsev txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv. "Wang Yanqing tau hais tias vim tias lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv lub quarter thib plaub, cov zis tau nce ntxiv, ua rau muaj qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev lag luam polysilicon.
Txij li xyoo 2021, nws tau tsav los ntawm cov kev xav tau ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg kho qhov muag teeb tsa lub tshuab, thiab lub peev xwm hauv tsev ntawm polysilicon tau pib ua kom nrawm ntawm kev tsim kho.Nyob rau hauv 2022, yam xws li kev txhim kho kev lag luam txoj kev vam meej, muaj zog downstream xav tau, thiab cov nplua nuj ntau lawm profits tau attracted ib tug loj npaum li cas ntawm peev nyob rau hauv lub polysilicon kev lag luam, thiab kev tsim kho ntawm cov tshiab tej yaam num tau successively pib, thiab cov muaj peev xwm mus ntxiv. nce.
Raws li kev txheeb cais los ntawm Baichuan Yingfu, txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, lub peev xwm polycrystalline silicon hauv tsev tau mus txog 1.165 lab tons, nce ntawm 60.53% thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo., GCL Shan 100,000 tons / xyoo Granules silicon thiab Tongwei Insurance Phase II 50,000 tons / xyoo.
Thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, ntau tus polysilicon tshiab muaj peev xwm ua tau maj mam mus txog nws cov khoom.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov khoom ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv Xinjiang pib ncig.Kev xa khoom ntawm polysilicon kev lag luam tau nce ntxiv, thiab qhov xwm txheej ntawm cov khoom siv nruj thiab kev xav tau tensions relieved sai heev.
Cov khoom lag luam ntawm polycrystalline silicon tau nce ntau, tab sis cov kev xav tau qis qis qis.Txij li thaum ua tiav ntawm qee qhov kev npaj npaj ua tiav thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, qhov kev yuav khoom tau pib txo qis heev.Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov kev thov tsis muaj zog thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo kuj ua rau cov saw hlau photovoltaic kev lag luam sib txawv ntawm qhov chaw cia, thiab cov khoom siv silicon ntau dhau yog qhov tshwj xeeb.Ntau lub tuam txhab ua lag luam tau sau ntau tus lej ntawm cov khoom siv silicon wafers.Nrog rau kev sib sau ntawm cov khoom muag, kev yuav khoom ntawm cov khoom siv raw rau cov tuam txhab ua yeeb yaj kiab silicon kuj tseem poob qis, ua rau poob ntawm cov nqi polysilicon.Hauv ib lub hlis xwb, nws poob 53,300 yuan, uas tau cuam tshuam rau 11 lub hlis.
Hauv cov ntsiab lus, kev ua lag luam polysilicon hauv 2022 tau tuav 11 lub hlis ntev kev ua lag luam nyuj.Txawm hais tias nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, vim muaj kev muaj peev xwm ntawm cov peev txheej tshiab, cov khoom lag luam tau nce ntxiv, pawg ntawm kev thov sab yog qaug zog.Qhov nce ntawm 37.31% yog qhov thib xya hauv cov npe nce ntawm cov khoom siv tshuaj.
Post lub sij hawm: Feb-02-2023