Tom qab kev ua lag luam nyuj ntev xyoo 2021, qhov kev nce siab tau txuas ntxiv mus txog xyoo 2022. Nws nyob rau hauv kev caij ib sab thiab lub xeev ruaj khov siab rau 11 lub hlis. Nyob ze rau thaum xaus ntawm xyoo 2022, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm kev ua lag luam polysilicon tau tshwm sim ntawm qhov tig, thiab thaum kawg xaus ntawm 37.31% nce.
Nce siab tas li rau 11 lub hlis
Xyoo 2022, kev ua lag luam polysilicon tau nce 67.61% hauv 11 lub hlis thawj zaug. Saib rov qab rau qhov kev lag luam ntawm lub xyoo, nws tuaj yeem faib ua peb theem. Hauv yim lub hlis thawj zaug, nws tau nce ib sab. Nws tseem nyob siab thaum lub Cuaj Hli mus txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis, thiab thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, nws tau hloov kho sai heev.
Theem thawj zaug yog thawj yim lub hlis ntawm xyoo 2022. Kev ua lag luam polysilicon muaj kev caij tsheb loj heev, nrog rau lub sijhawm ntawm 67.8%. Thaum pib ntawm xyoo 2022, kev ua lag luam polysilicon tau nce siab tom qab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 176,000 yuan (tus nqi ton, tib yam hauv qab no). Thaum kawg ntawm lub Yim Hli, tus nqi nruab nrab tau kov rau 295,300 yuan, thiab cov chaw tsim khoom ib leeg tau hais ntau dua 300,000 yuan. Thaum lub sijhawm no, kev ua tau zoo tag nrho ntawm cov saw hlau kev lag luam photovoltaic muaj zog, thiab tus nqi ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam silicon silicon hauv cov silicon downstream tseem ceeb txuas ntxiv nce, thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev ua lag luam davhlau ya nyob twg yog qhov tseem ceeb. Tib lub sijhawm, vim yog tus nqi siab ntawm cov ntaub ntawv silicon xa tuaj, lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm qhov chaw muab khoom superimposed tsis zoo li qhov xav tau. Cov chaw tsim khoom ib leeg tau tswj hwm hauv kev saib xyuas sib cais, thiab kev muab khoom ntawm polycrystalline silicon tsis raug tso cai txuas ntxiv nce.
Theem ob yog txij lub Cuaj Hlis mus txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022. Thaum lub sijhawm ntawd, kev lag luam polysilicon tau ruaj khov heev, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab tau khaws cia ntawm kwv yees li 295,000 yuan, thiab lub voj voog poob me ntsis los ntawm 0.11%. Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis, kev tsim khoom ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom polysilicon tau ua haujlwm, tus nqi ua haujlwm tau nce ntxiv ntau, thiab cov tuam txhab txij nkawm rov pib ua haujlwm ib qho tom qab ib qho, kev muab khoom tau nce ntxiv ntau, thiab tswj kev ua lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, cov hauv paus ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov polycrystalline silicon tseem tswj hwm qhov sib npaug nruj, thiab tus nqi tseem muaj zog, thiab nws tseem siab.
Theem thib peb yog nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022. Kev ua lag luam polysilicon tau rov zoo sai sai los ntawm qib siab ntawm 295,000 yuan thaum pib lub hlis, nrog rau kev txo qis txhua hli ntawm 18.08%. Qhov kev txo qis qis tshaj plaws no yog vim qhov kev ua haujlwm siab ntawm kev lag luam polysilicon. Cov chaw tsim khoom loj tseem ceeb pib tag nrho cov kab. Kev muab khoom tseem nce ntxiv piv rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, thiab qhov ceev ntawm kev xa khoom ntawm cov tuam txhab tau qeeb qeeb. Hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev thov, qhov qis ntawm lub caij ntuj no qhia txog qhov tsis muaj zog, tus nqi ntawm silicon wafers qis dua, thiab kev ua lag luam kawg kuj tau txo qis tib lub sijhawm. Txij li Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 30, 2022, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev ua lag luam polysilicon tau kho rau 241,700 yuan, poob 18.7% los ntawm xyoo siab ntawm 297,300 yuan thaum kawg ntawm lub Cuaj Hli.
Kev xav tau tsav tsheb mus txhua qhov chaw
Thoob plaws hauv kev ua lag luam txhua xyoo ntawm polysilicon hauv xyoo 2022, Guangfa Futures Analyst Ji Yuanfei ntseeg tias xyoo 2022, vim muaj kev thov ntau rau kev teeb tsa photovoltaic, kev ua lag luam polysilicon yeej ib txwm tsis txaus, uas ua rau tus nqi nce siab.
Wang Yanqing, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm CITIC Futures Futures Industrial Products, kuj tuav tib lub tswv yim. Nws hais tias kev lag luam photovoltaic yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm kev siv polysilicon. Thaum kev lag luam photovoltaic nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev nkag mus rau hauv Is Taws Nem pheej yig hauv xyoo 2021, lub voj voog kev vam meej tau qhib dua.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Zog Hauv Tebchaws, xyoo 2021, tus naj npawb ntawm kev teeb tsa photovoltaic tshiab yog 54.88GW, ua xyoo loj tshaj plaws ntawm lub xyoo; xyoo 2022, kev lag luam photovoltaic hauv tebchaws tau vam meej heev. Qhov ntim kev teeb tsa txhua xyoo ntawm kev nce xyoo-rau-xyoo yog siab txog 105.83% xyoo-rau-xyoo, qhia txog kev tawm tsam loj ntawm qhov kev thov kawg.
Thaum lub sijhawm no, cuam tshuam los ntawm hluav taws kub tsis tau xav txog hauv cov khoom siv silicon hauv Xinjiang thiab "lub nroog hnyav" Sichuan kev paub ntawm Sichuan hauv kev tsim cov khoom siv silicon, kev ntxhov siab ntawm kev lag luam polysilicon tau nce ntxiv thiab txhawb nqa kev nce nqi ntxiv.
Lub sijhawm hloov pauv ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom tab tom tshwm sim
Txawm li cas los xij, thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, kev ua lag luam polysilicon tau "hloov pauv style", thiab tau hloov ntawm Gao Ge txoj kev nce qib sai mus rau qhov poob, thiab txawm tias kev lag luam hauv kev lag luam tau txiav txim siab tias "avalanche" ntawm kev ua lag luam polysilicon yog qhov kawg.
"Thaum ntxov xyoo 2022, lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm polysilicon tau tso tawm ib qho tom qab ib qho. Tib lub sijhawm, nyob rau hauv qhov muaj txiaj ntsig siab, ntau tus neeg ua si tshiab nkag mus rau hauv qhov kev ua si thiab nthuav cov neeg ua si qub, thiab lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv tsev txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv." Wang Yanqing tau hais tias vim tias lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab feem ntau yog tsom mus rau lub quarter thib plaub, Cov zis tau nce ntxiv ntau, ua rau muaj qhov taw qhia ntawm kev lag luam polysilicon.
Txij li xyoo 2021, nws yog tsav los ntawm qhov xav tau ntawm lub tshuab teeb tsa kho qhov muag, thiab lub peev xwm polysilicon hauv tsev ntawm polysilicon tau pib ua kom nrawm dua kev tsim kho. Xyoo 2022, cov yam xws li kev txhim kho ntawm kev lag luam kev vam meej, qhov kev thov downstream muaj zog, thiab cov txiaj ntsig nplua nuj ntawm kev tsim khoom tau nyiam ntau lub peev hauv kev lag luam polysilicon, thiab kev tsim kho cov haujlwm tshiab tau pib ua tiav, thiab lub peev xwm tsim khoom txuas ntxiv mus.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Baichuan Yingfu, txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, cov peev xwm polycrystalline silicon hauv tsev tau txog 1.165 lab tons, nce 60.53% piv rau thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. , GCL Shan 100,000 tons / xyoo Granules silicon thiab Tongwei Insurance Phase II 50,000 tons / xyoo.
Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022, muaj ntau lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm polysilicon maj mam mus txog nws qhov kev tsim khoom. Tib lub sijhawm, cov khoom muag hauv Xinjiang pib ncig. Cov khoom muag ntawm kev lag luam polysilicon tau nce ntxiv ntau heev, thiab qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev muab khoom nruj thiab kev thov tau txo qis sai.
Sab muab khoom ntawm polycrystalline silicon tau nce ntau heev, tab sis qhov kev thov downstream tau poob qis. Txij li thaum ua tiav qee qhov kev npaj khoom thaum kawg ntawm lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, qhov ntim yuav khoom tau pib txo qis ntau heev. Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov kev thov tsis muaj zog thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo kuj ua rau cov saw hlau kev lag luam photovoltaic mus rau ntau qib ntawm kev khaws cia, thiab ntau dhau ntawm cov khoom silicon tau pom tseeb tshwj xeeb. Ntau lub tuam txhab ua lag luam tau sau ntau cov khoom lag luam silicon wafers. Nrog rau kev sau cov khoom lag luam, kev yuav khoom siv raw rau cov tuam txhab zaj duab xis silicon kuj tau txuas ntxiv poob qis, ua rau cov nqi polysilicon poob qis. Hauv ib hlis xwb, nws poob 53,300 yuan, uas tau cuam tshuam rau 11 lub hlis.
Hauv kev xaus lus, kev ua lag luam polysilicon hauv xyoo 2022 tau tswj hwm kev ua lag luam nyuj ntev 11 lub hlis. Txawm hais tias thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, vim muaj peev xwm ntau lawm tshiab, kev muab khoom lag luam tau nce ntxiv, qhov kev thov sab yog qaug zog. Qhov nce ntawm 37.31% yog qhov chaw thib xya hauv daim ntawv teev cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Ob Hlis-02-2023