n 2022, cuam tshuam los ntawm cov xwm txheej xws li kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev nce nyiaj txiag txawv teb chaws, tshuaj lom neeg xav tau rau lub sijhawm luv luv, thiab cov tuam txhab tsim khoom hauv tsev muaj de-inventory siab nyob rau lub sijhawm luv.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev kub ntxhov ntawm cov xwm txheej thoob ntiaj teb tau thawb kev ua haujlwm siab ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob loj, uas ua rau muaj qee yam kev ntxhov siab ntawm tus nqi qis kawg nkaus.Muaj qhov pom tseeb txawv.Qee cov ntaub ntawv tau txheeb xyuas thiab pom tias ob xyoos dhau los, cov nqi ntawm qee cov khoom tau nce siab los ntawm 700%, thiab qhov chaw ua lag luam tau nthuav dav ntxiv.Nrhiav rau pem hauv ntej rau 2023, lub sijhawm nyob qhov twg?
Yog 700% nce nyob rau hauv ob xyoos, cov khoom siv raw khoom txiav txim rau xyoo tom ntej
LithiumHydroxide: ntau lub tuam txhab downstream snapped
Raws li kev lag luam qhov xwm txheej ntawm cov khoom siv nruj thiab kev thov, lithium hydroxide tau snapped los ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom hauv qab.
Yahua Group tau tshaj tawm tias lub tuam txhab cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tag nrho Yahua Lithium (Ya'an) thiab SK's Aisi Kai Tshiab Zog (Shanghai) tau kos npe rau daim ntawv cog lus roj teeb-theem lithium hydroxide.Ya'an Lithium ua kom ntseeg tau tias txij xyoo 2023 txog 2025, nws muab cov khoom lag luam los ntawm Aisi, nrog rau tag nrho cov khoom ntawm 20,000 txog 30,000 tons.
Aiscai kuj tau kos npe rau "Kev Muag Khoom (2023-2025)" nrog Tianyi Lithium thiab Sichuan Tianhua kom muag roj teeb qib lithium hydroxide cov khoom lag luam rau Aiskai pib xyoo 2023, raws li daim ntawv cog lus muab kev xa khoom tsis sib xws txhua lub hlis thiab cov khoom xa tuaj txhua xyoo tsis pub tshaj tag nrho. Tus nqi pom zoo hauv daim ntawv cog lus (hauv ± 10%).
Ntxiv rau cov tuam txhab roj teeb, cov tuam txhab tsheb kuj tseem muaj kev sib tw rau lithium hydrogen oxide.Mercedes-Benz tshaj tawm kev pom zoo nrog Canada-Lub Tebchaws Yelemees Rock Tech Lithium.Qhov nruab nrab, tus qub yuav yuav 10,000 tons ntawm roj teeb-qib lithium hydroxide los ntawm tom kawg txhua xyoo, nrog rau kev sib pauv ntawm 1.5 billion euros.GM thiab LIG Tshiab Zog thiab Lithium Technology Lub Tuam Txhab Livent tau kos npe rau ntau xyoo ntawm kev pom zoo los xyuas kom meej tias cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb rau kev ua cov roj teeb tsheb hluav taws xob.Ntawm lawv, Livent yuav muab roj teeb-qib lithium hydroxide rau General Motors hauv 6 xyoo pib xyoo 2025.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam, ua ke nrog kev txhim kho tam sim no ntawm cov peev txheej lithium, kev tsim kho ntawm lithium ntsev ua lag luam, thiab kev nthuav dav ntawm cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob tshiab, cov khoom siv thiab kev thov ntawm lithium hydroxide tseem nyob hauv qhov sib npaug nruj, thiab nws cia siab tias yuav txuas ntxiv mus txog xyoo 2023.
PVDF: 7 npaug ntawm tus nqi nce, nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau sau rau qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom
Raws li kev lag luam downstream txuas ntxiv mus, cov khoom siv thiab kev thov sib txawv ntawm lithium roj teeb PVDF tseem nce ntxiv, thiab cov peev txheej ntawm cov khoom siv raw R142B tau dhau mus, thiab cov khoom lag luam loj heev.Tus nqi lag luam ntawm lithium-battery PVDF tau nce mus rau 700,000 yuan / tuj, uas yog ze li ntawm 7 npaug piv nrog tus nqi thaum ntxov 2021.
Vim tias qhov txwv PVDF muaj peev xwm ntawm cov roj teeb lithium hauv Suav teb, thiab cov peev txheej PVDF zoo tib yam tsis tuaj yeem hloov mus rau hauv lithium roj teeb-theem PVDF nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv, kev tsim cov khoom siv raw R142B yog nruj me ntsis tswj thiab nthuav dav, ua rau qeeb tso tawm ntawm domestic lithium roj teeb PVDF muaj peev xwm ntau lawm.Nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau kev tsim nws.Nrog rau kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev muag khoom ntawm lub zog tshiab nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, PVDF kev ua lag luam hauv 2022 yuav tsum tswj hwm lub xeev kev vam meej, txhawb nqa PVDF cov nqi, thiab pab PVDF cov tuam txhab tau ntxiv lawv cov kev ua tau zoo txhua xyoo.
PVP: Hnub xa khoom ntawm qee cov khoom yuav raug teem rau Lub Ib Hlis
Raws li qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm thaj chaw tsis sib haum xeeb thiab teeb meem ntawm lub zog, lub peev xwm tsim khoom ntawm European tshuaj loj loj tau poob qis, kev txiav txim rau cov tuam txhab hauv tsev tau nce siab, thiab cov neeg muaj feem cuam tshuam los ntawm cov tuam txhab PVP cov tuam txhab tau hais tias "lub tuam txhab PVP cov khoom lag luam muaj kev cuam tshuam loj, thiab lub sij hawm xa khoom ntawm qee cov khoom lag luam tau nyob rau xyoo tom ntej.Lub Ib Hlis."
Cov peev txheej cuam tshuam ntawm PVP cov chaw tsim khoom tau hais tias tam sim no PVP lub peev xwm tsim khoom ntawm European cov tuam txhab tau poob qis, thiab ntau qhov kev txiav txim txawv teb chaws tau pib hloov mus rau cov lag luam hauv tsev.Tam sim no, lub tuam txhab muaj ib tug backlog ntawm ze li ntawm 1000 tons ntawm PVP cov khoom, thiab kev xa khoom ntawm ib co khoom yog teem rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo los yog txawm lub ib hlis ntuj xyoo tom ntej.
Kev lag luam photovoltaic: Daim ntawv xaj txog xyoo 2030
Daqo Energy tau kos npe rau Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo Muag nrog tus neeg siv khoom.Nws tau pom zoo hauv daim ntawv cog lus tias tus neeg siv khoom yuav tsum yuav 148,800 tons ntawm Sun-theem thawj-qib pub dawb-ntxuav blocks los ntawm Daqo Zog txij lub Ib Hlis 2023 txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2027, thiab kwv yees qhov yuav khoom yog 45.086 billion yuan.Txij li xyoo 2022, Daqo Zog tau kos npe rau yim daim ntawv cog lus loj uas suav txog 370 billion yuan.
Longji Green Energy thiab nws cov chaw ua haujlwm cuaj tau kos npe rau daim ntawv cog lus yuav khoom ntev rau cov khoom siv polysilicon nrog Daqo Energy subsidiary Inner Mongolia Daqo Tshiab Zog.Raws li daim ntawv cog lus, kev sib pauv ntau ntawm cov ntaub ntawv polysilicon ntawm ob tog txij thaum lub Tsib Hlis 2023 txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2027 yog 25.128 lab tons.Tag nrho cov nyiaj ntawm daim ntawv cog lus no yog kwv yees li 67.156 billion yuan.
Shuangliang Silicon Materials (Baotou) Co., LTD., ib lub tuam txhab ua lag luam tag nrho ntawm Shuangliang Energy Saving Co., Ltd.Nws tau pom zoo hauv daim ntawv cog lus no tias Shuangliang Silicon Materials (Baotou) Co., Ltd. yuav tsum yuav 155,300 tons ntawm polysilicon cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm 2022 txog 2027, nrog kwv yees li yuav nyiaj RMB 47.056 billion.
Tam sim no, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam photovoltaic tseem nthuav tawm txoj kev loj hlob zoo.Nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm photovoltaic kev lag luam tshaj 100%, thiab export ntawm photovoltaic kev lag luam tshaj 40 billion US dollars, nrog rau ib lub xyoo ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm ze li ntawm 100%.Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, ib tug xov tooj ntawm cov npe ntawm silicon tuam txhab uas muag tau nquag tshaj tawm cov ntawv cog lus loj, thiab tau kos npe rau ntau tshaj 10 lub sij hawm ntev kev muag khoom silicon txiav txim, tag nrho cov loj ntawm ntau tshaj 3 lab tons thiab cov nyiaj ntau tshaj 800 billion yuan.Kwv yees li 92% ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm kev lag luam silicon hauv 2022 tau raug kaw los ntawm cov lag luam hauv qab, thiab qee qhov kev cog lus ntev tau kos npe rau xyoo 2030.
Cov lem tshiab xws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab thiab kev thov rov qab xav tau yuav tshwm sim hauv 2023
Tam sim no, kev lag luam tshuaj yog hloov los ntawm kev tsim khoom loj mus rau kev tsim khoom zoo.Cov ntaub ntawv tshiab uas tsis tshua muaj kev nkag mus rau hauv Suav lag luam tau nthuav tawm, thiab cov ntaub ntawv tshiab xws li cov ntaub ntawv silicon, lithium roj teeb, POE, thiab cov ntaub ntawv tshiab tau nrawm dua.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov kev thov qis qis yog maj mam qhib.Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis hauv 2023 tau maj mam tsis muaj zog, thiab kev xav tau yuav tsum ua kom nrawm dua cov peev txheej ntawm txoj kev tshiab.
Tam sim no, cov nqi ntawm cov tshuaj tseem ceeb tau poob thiab nyob rau hauv qab ntau yam.Raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2, Tuam Tshoj Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) tau kaw ntawm 4,819 cov ntsiab lus, qhov txo qis ntawm 7.86% los ntawm 5230 cov ntsiab lus thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no.
Peb ntseeg tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb xav tias yuav loj hlob tsis tu ncua hauv 2023, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kev lag luam hauv tsev yuav tsum tau coj mus rau qhov kev rov qab los tshiab.Tus thawj coj hauv kev lag luam yuav ua tiav kev ua haujlwm loj hlob ntawm theem ntawm kev thov kho.Tsis tas li ntawd, cov lem tshiab xws li cov ntaub ntawv tshiab thiab kev thov rov qab tau tawg.Ceev tso tawm.Rau 2023, peb tsom mus rau peb pawg ntawm cov khoom:
(1) Synthetic biology: Nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau ntawm carbon neutrality, fossil-based cov ntaub ntawv yuav ntsib kev cuam tshuam, cov khoom siv roj ntsha yuav ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv nrog kev ua tau zoo thiab tus nqi zoo.Cov ntawv thov loj hauv lwm qhov chaw, hluavtaws biology, raws li txoj hauv kev tshiab ntawm kev tsim khoom, yuav tsum coj mus rau lub sijhawm zoo, thiab kev lag luam xav tau yuav tsum maj mam qhib.
(2) Cov ntaub ntawv tshiab: Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg kev nyab xeeb ntxiv qhov tseem ceeb, tsim kom muaj kev ywj pheej thiab kev tswj hwm kev lag luam yuav tshwm sim, qee cov ntaub ntawv tshiab yuav tsum ua kom nrawm dua qhov kev hloov pauv hauv tsev, xws li kev ua haujlwm siab molecular sieve thiab catalyst. , aluminium adsorption cov ntaub ntawv, aerogels, tsis zoo electrode txheej cov ntaub ntawv thiab lwm yam ntaub ntawv tshiab permeability thiab kev ua lag luam sib koom yuav maj mam nce, cov ntaub ntawv tshiab yuav tsum ceev txoj kev loj hlob.
(3) Tshwm sim ntawm vaj tse & cov neeg siv khoom xav tau: Nrog rau tsoomfwv tso tawm cov cim los txo cov khoom lag luam thiab ua kom zoo dua qhov kev tiv thaiv thiab kev tswj hwm ntawm kev sib kis, kev txhim kho marginal ntawm cov cai tswj vaj tsev, kev vam meej ntawm kev noj thiab vaj tse. yuav tsum tau kho, thiab cov khoom vaj khoom tsev thiab cov neeg siv khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg yuav tsum tau txais txiaj ntsig.
Post lub sij hawm: Dec-20-2022