Xyoo 2023 tab tom los txog. Nrog rau kev ua kom zoo dua ntawm cov cai tiv thaiv thiab tswj kev sib kis, lub zog ntawm cov kev ntsuas los tswj kev loj hlob thiab qhov cuam tshuam qis, ntau lub koom haum tshawb fawb kwv yees tias Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob ntawm GDP txhua xyoo yuav rov zoo dua xyoo no. Raws li kev lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm lub teb chaws kev lag luam, kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg txuas ntau yam khoom siv thiab lub zog mus rau sab saud, thaum cov dej ntws mus rau sab saud muaj feem cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau cov khoom siv niaj hnub ntawm cov neeg. Xyoo 2023, kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg yuav tsum xav txog ob qho tib si kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom muag thiab kev hloov pauv, yog li thaj chaw twg yuav dhau los ua cov peev txheej muaj zog tshaj plaws? Txhawm rau kom txaus siab rau cov neeg nyeem, cov tswv yim peev txheej roj av thiab tshuaj lom neeg ntawm cov tuam txhab kev ruaj ntseg xws li Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities thiab China Merchants Securities yuav raug txheeb xyuas kom meej.
Lub Rooj Sib Tham Txog Kev Ua Haujlwm Kev Lag Luam Hauv Nruab Nrab tsis ntev los no tau hais meej meej tias yuav tsum muaj kev siv zog los nthuav kev thov hauv tsev, thiab kev hloov kho tshiab ntawm txoj cai tswj kev sib kis tau ua rau kev rov zoo ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev. Raws li kev cia siab dav dav, ntau tus neeg ua lag luam ntseeg tias: Xyoo 2023, kev thov rau qee cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg yuav rov qab loj hlob, thiab cov phaj khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg tshiab uas koom nrog kev txhim kho lub zog tshiab, kev khaws cia lub zog, semiconductor thiab kev lag luam tub rog tseem yuav tswj hwm kev lag luam siab. Ntawm lawv, cov ntaub ntawv semiconductor, cov ntaub ntawv photovoltaic, cov ntaub ntawv lithium thiab lwm yam yog qhov tsim nyog rau cov tub ua lag luam mloog.
Cov ntaub ntawv semiconductor: siv qhov zoo ntawm kev hloov pauv hauv tsev kom ua kom nrawm dua
Xyoo 2022, vim yog lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam vam meej hloov pauv thiab qhov cuam tshuam rov qab los ntawm tus kab mob sib kis, tag nrho kev lag luam hluav taws xob tau ntsib qee qhov kev nyuaj siab ua haujlwm. Tab sis feem ntau, kev lag luam semiconductor hauv Suav teb tseem tab tom loj hlob.
Daim Ntawv Tshaj Tawm Kev Tshawb Fawb Guoxin Securities tau taw qhia tias tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor hauv kuv lub tebchaws tsuas yog li 10% hauv xyoo 2021, thiab nws tsis zoo hauv cov qeb kev nplua nuj thiab kev sib tw. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm ntev, kuv lub tebchaws kev lag luam integrated circuit yuav pib ntawm txoj kev ntawm kev tsim kho tshiab ywj pheej. Nws xav tias cov ntaub ntawv hauv tsev thiab cov khoom siv tuaj yeem tau txais ntau cov peev txheej thiab cov cib fim, thiab lub voj voog hloov pauv hauv tsev yuav luv dua.
Nyob rau xyoo tas los no, qhov kev thov rau cov ntawv thov semiconductor thiab cov neeg siv khoom lag luam tau nce ntxiv tas li. Xyoo 2021, kev muag khoom semiconductor thoob ntiaj teb tau txog 555.9 billion US dollars, nce ntxiv ntawm US $ 45.5 billion piv rau xyoo 2020; nws xav tias yuav txuas ntxiv loj hlob hauv xyoo 2022, thiab kev muag khoom semiconductor yuav ncav cuag US $ 601.4 billion. Muaj ntau hom khoom siv semiconductor, thiab peb qhov saum toj kawg nkaus hauv kev sib koom ua lag luam yog silicon wafers, gases, thiab lub teeb molding. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev sib koom ua lag luam ntawm cov kua polishing thiab polishing pads, lithography adhesive reagents, lithography, cov tshuaj ntub dej, thiab sputtering targets yog 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, thiab 3.0%, raws li.
Daim Ntawv Tshaj Tawm Kev Tshawb Fawb ntawm Guangfa Securities ntseeg tias kev txiav mus rau hauv thaj chaw ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor (cov tshuaj lom neeg hluav taws xob) los ntawm kev tshawb fawb thiab kev txhim kho endogenous lossis kev txuas ntxiv kev sib koom ua ke thiab kev yuav khoom yog tus qauv ntau dua rau cov tuam txhab tshuaj lom neeg los nrhiav kev hloov pauv hauv xyoo tas los no. Txawm hais tias cov tuam txhab hloov pauv zoo tuaj yeem tau txais kev lag luam siab dua thaum tau txais kev lag luam sai dua, peb tau coj mus rau hauv nthwv dej ntawm kev loj hlob ob npaug. Hauv nthwv dej ntawm kev txhim kho sai ntawm kev lag luam semiconductor hauv tsev, cov tuam txhab khoom siv cuam tshuam kuj tau coj mus rau hauv lub sijhawm zoo rau kev hloov pauv hauv tsev. Qee lub tuam txhab uas muaj zog R & D muaj zog thiab cov neeg siv khoom ua tiav, thiab kev hloov pauv khoom lag luam zoo thiab kev txhim kho yuav tsum sib koom kev txhim kho sai ntawm kev lag luam semiconductor.
Ping An Securities Research tshaj tawm tias muaj ntau yam xws li "silicon cycle" thiab macroeconomic cycles, thiab kev lag luam semiconductor yuav poob qis hauv xyoo 2023.
Daim Ntawv Tshaj Tawm Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Lag Luam Sab Hnub Poob ntseeg tias kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev tswj hwm kev xa khoom tawm hauv Tebchaws Meskas yuav ua rau muaj kev xaiv cov khoom siv semiconductor hauv tebchaws sai dua. Lawv muaj kev cia siab txog cov khoom siv semiconductor, cov khoom siv thiab cov khoom siv cuam tshuam, thiab kev lag luam silicon carbide.
Cov Khoom Siv Photovoltaic: Kaum billion-theem POE kev ua lag luam tos kom tawg los ntawm
Xyoo 2022, nyob rau hauv kev txhawb nqa ntawm kuv lub teb chaws txoj cai, tus naj npawb ntawm cov kev teeb tsa tshiab hauv kev lag luam photovoltaic hauv tsev tau nce ntxiv ntau, thiab qhov kev thov rau cov yeeb yaj kiab photovoltaic kua nplaum kuj nce ntxiv.
Cov khoom siv raw ntawm zaj duab xis photovoltaic kua nplaum muab faib ua ob hom: ethylene-ethyl acetate zej zog (EVA) thiab polyolefin elastomer (POE). EVA, ua cov khoom siv raw tam sim no ntawm zaj duab xis photovoltaic kua nplaum, muaj qib siab ntawm kev xa khoom tuaj, thiab muaj qhov chaw loj rau kev lag luam yav tom ntej. Tib lub sijhawm, nws xav tias qhov kev thov rau EVA hauv thaj chaw ntawm zaj duab xis photovoltaic kua nplaum hauv kuv lub tebchaws hauv xyoo 2025 tuaj yeem ncav cuag txog 45.05%.
Lwm cov khoom siv raw POE tseem ceeb tuaj yeem siv rau photovoltaic, tsheb, cables, foaming, khoom siv hauv tsev thiab lwm yam teb. Tam sim no, photovoltaic ntim kua nplaum zaj duab xis tau dhau los ua thaj chaw thov loj tshaj plaws ntawm POE. Raws li "Tuam Tshoj Photovoltaic Kev Lag Luam Kev Txhim Kho Txoj Kev (2021 Edition)", feem pua ntawm kev ua lag luam ntawm cov yeeb yaj kiab POE kua nplaum hauv tsev thiab ua npuas ncauj polyethylene (EPE) kua nplaum zaj duab xis hauv xyoo 2021 tau nce mus txog 23.1%. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, nrog rau kev nce ntxiv ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm photovoltaic hauv kuv lub teb chaws thiab kev nkag mus tas li ntawm POE hauv cov yeeb yaj kiab photovoltaic kua nplaum, kev thov POE hauv tsev tau nce ntxiv tas li.
Txawm li cas los xij, vim tias cov txheej txheem tsim khoom POE muaj cov teeb meem siab, tam sim no, cov tuam txhab hauv tsev tsis muaj peev xwm ntawm POE, thiab txhua qhov kev siv POE hauv kuv lub tebchaws vam khom rau kev xa khoom tuaj. Txij li xyoo 2017, cov tuam txhab hauv tsev tau tsim cov khoom POE tas mus li. Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry thiab lwm lub tuam txhab ntiag tug xav tias yuav ua tiav kev hloov pauv hauv tsev ntawm POE yav tom ntej.
Cov ntaub ntawv roj teeb lithium: kev xa khoom ntawm plaub cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb tau nce ntxiv
Xyoo 2022, Tuam Tshoj lub tsheb fais fab tshiab thiab roj teeb lithium lub khw muag khoom tseem siab, ua rau kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv roj teeb lithium nce ntxiv ntau heev. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Tuam Tshoj Automobile Association, txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, kev tsim khoom thiab kev muag khoom ntawm cov tsheb fais fab tshiab hauv tsev tau ua tiav 6.253 lab thiab 6.067 lab, feem, qhov nruab nrab nce ntxiv txhua xyoo, thiab feem ntawm kev ua lag luam tau txog 25%.
Lub Koom Haum Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Lag Luam High-Tech (GGII) xav tias yuav muag tau ntau dua 6.7 lab lub tsheb fais fab tshiab hauv tebchaws hauv xyoo 2022; nws xav tias kev lag luam tsheb fais fab tshiab hauv Suav teb yuav tshaj 9 lab hauv xyoo 2023. Hauv xyoo 2022, kev xa khoom roj teeb lithium hauv Suav teb yuav loj hlob ntau dua 100%, kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa khoom roj teeb fais fab yuav tshaj 110%, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa khoom roj teeb lithium khaws cia hluav taws xob ntau dua 150%. Kev loj hlob tseem ceeb ntawm kev xa khoom roj teeb lithium tau tsav plaub yam khoom tseem ceeb xws li positive, negative, diaphragm, electrolyte, thiab lwm yam khoom siv roj teeb lithium xws li lithium hexfluorophosphate thiab copper foil mus rau ntau qib.
Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau tias nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2022, Tuam Tshoj Lithium Electric Electronic Materials tau xa khoom 770,000 tons, nce 62% xyoo-rau-xyoo; cov khoom xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv electrode tsis zoo yog 540,000 tons, nce 68% xyoo-rau-xyoo; 55%; cov khoom xa khoom electrolyte yog 330,000 tons, nce 63% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Tag nrho, xyoo 2022, tag nrho cov khoom xa khoom ntawm plaub lub roj teeb lithium loj hauv Tuam Tshoj tseem yog qhov kev loj hlob.
GGII kwv yees tias kev lag luam roj teeb lithium hauv tebchaws yuav tshaj 1TWh hauv xyoo 2023. Ntawm lawv, kev xa khoom roj teeb fais fab yuav tshaj 800GWh, thiab kev xa khoom roj teeb cia hluav taws xob yuav tshaj 180GWh, uas yuav tsav tag nrho kev xa khoom ntawm plaub lub roj teeb lithium loj kom nce ntxiv.
Txawm hais tias tus nqi ntawm lithium ore thiab lithium ntsev poob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau hauv lub qhov muag ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam, qhov no feem ntau yog vim qhov cuam tshuam ntawm lub caij tsis yog, thiab "qhov chaw hloov pauv" ntawm lithium nqi tsis tau tuaj txog.
Huaxi Securities ntseeg tias qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov ntsev lithium yog qhov kev hloov pauv ib txwm muaj ntawm lub caij siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam, tsis yog "qhov chaw hloov pauv". Shen Wanhongyuan Securities kuj ntseeg tias nrog kev tso tawm ntxiv ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom tsim tawm hauv xyoo 2023, qhov sib txawv ntawm cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov roj teeb lithium kev lag luam saw hlau yuav txuas ntxiv mus los ntawm sab saud mus rau hauv qab. Zhejiang Business Securities ntseeg tias qhov kev lees txim ntawm cov peev txheej lithium yog ntau dua li qhov xav tau hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej ntawm 2023.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Ib Hlis-10-2023