Xyoo 2023 nkag mus rau hauv. Nrog rau kev ua kom zoo ntawm kev tiv thaiv kab mob sib kis thiab tswj cov cai, lub zog ntawm kev ntsuas kom ruaj khov kev loj hlob thiab cov txiaj ntsig qis, ntau lub koom haum tshawb fawb tau kwv yees tias Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob ntawm GDP xyoo no yuav rov zoo dua xyoo no.Raws li lub hauv paus kev lag luam ntawm lub teb chaws kev lag luam, cov tshuaj lom neeg kev lag luam txuas ntau yam kev pab cuam thiab lub zog nce, thaum cov dej ntws ncaj qha cuam tshuam rau cov khoom siv niaj hnub ntawm tib neeg.Xyoo 2023, kev lag luam tshuaj yuav tsum xav txog ob qho tib si cov khoom lag luam hloov pauv thiab hloov pauv, yog li cov cheeb tsam twg yuav dhau los ua lub peev zoo tshaj plaws?Txhawm rau kom cov neeg nyeem txaus siab, cov tswv yim kev lag luam roj av thiab tshuaj lom neeg ntawm cov tuam txhab kev nyab xeeb xws li Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities thiab Tuam Tshoj Cov Tub Lag Luam Securities yuav raug txheeb xyuas tag nrho.
Lub Rooj Sib Tham Txog Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam tsis ntev los no tau hais meej meej tias yuav tsum tau siv zog los nthuav cov kev xav tau hauv tsev, thiab kev hloov kho tsis ntev los no ntawm txoj cai tswjfwm kev sib kis tau nrawm rau kev rov qab los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam hauv tsev.Raws li kev cia siab, ntau tus brokerages ntseeg tias: Hauv 2023, qhov kev thov rau qee cov khoom siv tshuaj yuav tsum tau rov qab los, thiab cov khoom siv tshuaj tshiab tshiab koom nrog kev txhim kho lub zog tshiab, lub zog khaws cia, semiconductor thiab tub rog kev lag luam tseem yuav tseem. tuav lub lag luam siab.Ntawm lawv, cov ntaub ntawv semiconductor, cov ntaub ntawv photovoltaic, cov ntaub ntawv lithium thiab lwm yam yog qhov tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tsim nyog ntawm cov tub ua lag luam 'kev saib xyuas.
Cov khoom siv semiconductor: coj kom zoo dua ntawm kev hloov pauv hauv tsev kom nrawm nrawm
Xyoo 2022, vim yog lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam ib puag ncig thiab kev lag luam kev vam meej hloov pauv hloov pauv thiab cuam tshuam rov qab los ntawm kev sib kis, tag nrho kev lag luam hluav taws xob tau ntsib qee yam kev ua haujlwm siab.Tab sis feem ntau, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam semiconductor tseem tab tom loj hlob.
Guoxin Securities Research Report tau taw qhia tias thaj chaw ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor hauv kuv lub tebchaws tsuas yog kwv yees li 10% hauv xyoo 2021, thiab nws tsis zoo nyob rau hauv qeb kev nplua nuj thiab kev sib tw.Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev, kuv lub teb chaws kev lag luam kev sib koom ua ke yuav pib ntawm txoj kev ywj pheej tshiab.Nws cia siab tias cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab cov khoom siv tuaj yeem tau txais kev pab ntau dua thiab muaj peev xwm, thiab kev hloov pauv hauv tsev yuav tsum luv luv.
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, kev thov rau kev siv semiconductor thiab cov neeg siv khoom lag luam tau nce tsis tu ncua.Nyob rau hauv 2021, thoob ntiaj teb semiconductor muag tau mus txog 555.9 billion US dollars, nce ntawm US $ 45.5 billion tshaj 2020;nws cia siab tias yuav loj hlob ntxiv rau xyoo 2022, thiab kev muag khoom semiconductor yuav ncav cuag US $ 601.4 billion.Muaj ntau ntau yam khoom siv semiconductor, thiab peb qhov saum toj kawg nkaus hauv kev lag luam sib koom yog silicon wafers, gases, thiab lub teeb molding.Tsis tas li ntawd, kev lag luam sib faib ntawm cov kua dej polishing thiab polishing pads, lithography adhesive reagents, lithography, cov tshuaj ntub dej, thiab sputtering lub hom phiaj yog 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, thiab 3.0%, feem.
Guangfa Securities Research Report ntseeg hais tias txiav mus rau hauv lub teb ntawm semiconductor cov ntaub ntawv (electronic chemicals) los ntawm endogenous kev tshawb fawb thiab kev loj hlob los yog txuas ntxiv mergers thiab acquisitions yog ib tug ntau yam qauv rau cov lag luam tshuaj mus nrhiav kev hloov nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no.Txawm hais tias cov tuam txhab hloov pauv tau zoo tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig kev lag luam ntau dua thaum tau txais kev lag luam sai dua, peb tau coj mus rau hauv nthwv dej ntawm kev loj hlob dual.Nyob rau hauv lub nthwv dej ntawm kev loj hlob sai ntawm domestic semiconductor kev lag luam, muaj feem xyuam rau cov ntaub ntawv tuam txhab uas muag kuj ushered nyob rau hauv ib tug zoo lub sij hawm rau domestic hloov.Qee lub tuam txhab uas muaj zog R & D muaj zog thiab cov neeg siv khoom muaj kev vam meej, thiab kev ua tiav cov khoom hloov pauv thiab kev hloov kho tshiab yuav tsum qhia txog kev txhim kho sai ntawm kev lag luam semiconductor.
Ping Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Ruaj Ntseg tau tshaj tawm tias muaj ntau yam xws li "silicon cycle" thiab macroeconomic cycles, thiab kev lag luam semiconductor xav tias yuav qis dua hauv 2023.
Daim Ntawv Qhia Txog Kev Ruaj Ntseg Hauv Tebchaws Western ntseeg tias qhov nce hauv Asmeskas kev tswj hwm kev xa tawm yuav ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv hauv tsev ntawm cov khoom siv semiconductor.Lawv zoo siab txog cov khoom siv semiconductor, cov khoom siv thiab cov khoom siv sib xws, thiab kev ua lag luam silicon carbide.
Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob: Kaum billion-theem POE kev ua lag luam tos kom tawg
Hauv xyoo 2022, raws li kev txhawb nqa ntawm kuv lub teb chaws txoj cai, tus naj npawb ntawm kev teeb tsa tshiab hauv kev lag luam photovoltaic hauv tsev tau nce ntau, thiab qhov kev thov rau photovoltaic kua nplaum zaj duab xis kuj nce ntxiv.
Photovoltaic kua nplaum zaj duab xis raw cov ntaub ntawv muab faib ua ob hom: ethylene -ethyl acetate zej zog (EVA) thiab polyolefin elastomer (POE).EVA, raws li cov khoom siv tseem ceeb tam sim no ntawm photovoltaic kua nplaum zaj duab xis, muaj qib siab ntawm kev tuaj yeem tuaj yeem, thiab muaj qhov chaw loj rau hauv cheeb tsam yav tom ntej.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nws xav tias qhov kev thov rau EVA hauv thaj tsam ntawm photovoltaic kua nplaum zaj duab xis hauv kuv lub tebchaws xyoo 2025 tuaj yeem ncav cuag 45.05%.
Lwm cov khoom siv tseem ceeb POE tuaj yeem siv rau photovoltaic, tsheb, cables, foaming, khoom siv hauv tsev thiab lwm yam.Tam sim no, photovoltaic ntim kua nplaum zaj duab xis tau dhau los ua thaj chaw thov loj tshaj plaws ntawm POE.Raws li "Tuam Tshoj Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (2021 Edition)", kev ua lag luam feem ntau ntawm POE kua nplaum zaj duab xis thiab ua npuas ncauj polyethylene (EPE) kua nplaum zaj duab xis hauv xyoo 2021 tau nce mus rau 23.1%.Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, nrog kev nce ntxiv ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic hauv kuv lub teb chaws thiab kev nkag mus tas li ntawm POE hauv photovoltaic kua nplaum zaj duab xis, kev thov hauv tsev POE tau nce tsis tu ncua.
Txawm li cas los xij, vim tias POE cov txheej txheem tsim khoom muaj kev txwv siab, tam sim no, cov tuam txhab hauv tsev tsis muaj peev xwm ntawm POE, thiab tag nrho POE noj hauv kuv lub teb chaws cia siab rau kev xa khoom.Txij li xyoo 2017, cov lag luam hauv tsev tau ua tiav cov khoom lag luam POE.Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry thiab lwm cov tuam txhab ntiag tug xav kom ua tiav kev hloov pauv hauv POE yav tom ntej.
Cov khoom siv roj teeb lithium: kev xa khoom ntawm plaub yam khoom tseem ceeb tau nce ntxiv
Xyoo 2022, Tuam Tshoj lub zog tshiab tsheb thiab lithium roj teeb lub zog cia kev lag luam tseem muaj siab, ua rau kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv roj teeb lithium kom nce ntxiv.Raws li Tuam Tshoj Automobile Association cov ntaub ntawv, txij lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, kev tsim thiab muag cov tsheb tshiab lub zog hauv tsev ua tiav 6.253 lab thiab 6.067 lab, raws li qhov nruab nrab xyoo-rau-xyoo nce, thiab kev lag luam sib faib tau mus txog 25%.
Lub Tsev Haujlwm Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam High-Tech (GGII) xav tias yuav muag ntau dua 6.7 lab lub zog tshiab hauv tsheb muag hauv 2022;Nws cia siab tias Tuam Tshoj lub zog tshiab tsheb lag luam yuav ntau dua 9 lab hauv 2023. Nyob rau hauv 2022, Tuam Tshoj lub lithium roj teeb xa khoom loj hlob yuav tsum siab tshaj 100%, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov roj teeb xa khoom yuav tsum siab tshaj 110%, thiab kev loj hlob tus nqi. ntawm lub zog cia lithium roj teeb xa khoom ntau tshaj 150%.Kev loj hlob tseem ceeb ntawm lithium roj teeb xa khoom tau tsav plaub yam khoom tseem ceeb ntawm qhov zoo, tsis zoo, diaphragm, electrolyte, thiab lwm yam lithium roj teeb cov ntaub ntawv xws li lithium hexfluorophosphate thiab tooj liab ntawv ci rau ntau qib.
Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias thawj ib nrab xyoo 2022, Tuam Tshoj Lithium Hluav Taws Xob Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob tau xa tawm 770,000 tons, nce 62% xyoo-rau-xyoo;kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom tsis zoo electrode yog 540,000 tons, nce 68% xyoo-rau-xyoo;55% yog ';electrolyte xa khoom yog 330,000 tons, nce 63% xyoo-rau-xyoo.Ntawm tag nrho, hauv 2022, tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj ntawm plaub lub roj teeb lithium loj hauv Suav teb tseem yog qhov kev loj hlob.
GGII kwv yees tias kev lag luam roj teeb lithium hauv tsev yuav dhau 1TWh hauv 2023. Ntawm lawv, cov roj teeb hluav taws xob xa khoom yuav tsum siab tshaj 800GWh, thiab lub zog cia roj teeb xa tuaj yuav ntau dua 180GWh, uas yuav ua rau tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj ntawm plaub lub roj teeb lithium loj kom nce ntxiv. .
Txawm hais tias tus nqi ntawm lithium ore thiab lithium ntsev poob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau hauv lub qhov muag ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm, qhov no feem ntau yog vim lub caij tawm, thiab "qhov taw tes" ntawm lithium cov nqi tseem tsis tau tuaj txog.
Huaxi Securities ntseeg hais tias qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi ntawm lithium ntsev yog qhov hloov pauv ntawm lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam, tsis yog "qhov taw tes kis".Shen Wanhongyuan Securities tseem ntseeg hais tias nrog kev tso tawm ntxiv ntawm cov ntaub ntawv raw khoom muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv 2023, tus qauv ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lithium roj teeb kev lag luam saw saw yuav txuas ntxiv los ntawm sab saum toj mus rau hauv qab.Zhejiang Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam ntseeg tias qhov kev lees paub ntawm cov peev txheej lithium ntau dua li qhov xav tau hauv ib nrab xyoo 2023.
Post lub sij hawm: Jan-10-2023