Nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev hloov pauv tshiab ntawm kev tshawb fawb thiab thev naus laus zis thiab kev nce qib ntawm kev txhawb nqa thoob ntiaj teb, kev muab cov peev xwm tshiab tau poob qis, thaum cov teb tshiab tau nthuav dav tas li. Cov kev lag luam cuam tshuam xws li cov ntaub ntawv fluorine, cov tshuaj phosphorus, aramid thiab lwm yam kev lag luam yuav txuas ntxiv mus. Nws kuj tseem muaj kev cia siab txog nws txoj kev loj hlob yav tom ntej.
Kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg Fluorine: Qhov chaw ua lag luam txuas ntxiv nthuav dav
Xyoo 2022, kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov tuam txhab uas teev npe rau fluorochemical tau zoo heev. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tsis tiav, hauv peb lub hlis thawj zaug, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ntau dua 10 lub tuam txhab uas teev npe rau fluorochemical tau nce txhua xyoo, thiab qee lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los tau nce ntau dua 6 npaug txhua xyoo. Txij li cov khoom siv txias mus rau cov khoom siv tshiab ntawm fluoride, mus rau cov roj teeb lithium tshiab, cov khoom siv tshuaj fluoride tau nthuav dav lawv qhov chaw ua lag luam nrog lawv cov txiaj ntsig kev ua tau zoo tshwj xeeb.
Fluorite yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam fluorochemical. Cov hydrofluoric acid ua los ntawm cov khoom siv raw yog lub hauv paus ntawm kev lag luam tshuaj fluorine niaj hnub. Raws li lub hauv paus ntawm tag nrho cov kev lag luam fluorochemical, hydrofluoric acid yog cov khoom siv raw rau kev ua cov khoom siv tshuaj fluorine nruab nrab thiab qis. Cov lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm nws cov qis suav nrog cov tub yees.
Raws li "Montreal Protocol", xyoo 2024, kev tsim khoom thiab kev siv peb tiam neeg ntawm cov tub yees hauv kuv lub tebchaws yuav khov ntawm qib pib. Daim Ntawv Tshaj Qhia Kev Tshawb Fawb Yangtze Securities ntseeg tias tom qab peb tiam neeg sib tw cov khoom siv tub yees, cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav rov qab mus rau qib kev muab khoom lag luam ntau dua. Cov khoom siv tub yees peb tiam neeg hauv xyoo 2024 tau raug khov, thiab cov khoom siv tub yees tiam neeg thib ob hauv xyoo 2025 tau txo qis 67.5%. Nws xav tias yuav coj qhov sib txawv ntawm 140,000 tons / xyoo. Hais txog kev thov, qhov nyuaj ntawm kev lag luam vaj tse tseem muaj. Nyob rau hauv kev ua kom zoo ntawm kev tiv thaiv thiab tswj kev sib kis, kev lag luam xws li cov khoom siv hauv tsev yuav maj mam rov zoo. Nws xav tias peb tiam neeg ntawm cov tub yees yuav rov qab los ntawm qab ntawm kev vam meej.
Lub Koom Haum Tshawb Fawb Txog Kev Lag Luam Tuam Tshoj kwv yees tias nrog kev txhim kho sai ntawm lub zog tshiab, tsheb siv zog tshiab, semiconductors, khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab kev lag luam kho mob, cov tshuaj nruab nrab uas muaj fluorine, cov tshuaj fluoride monomer tshwj xeeb, cov tshuaj fluoride txias, hom tshuaj tua hluav taws tshiab uas muaj fluorine, thiab lwm yam. Kev txhim kho cov tshuaj tshiab uas muaj fluorine tau txuas ntxiv mus tob zuj zus. Qhov chaw ua lag luam ntawm cov lag luam downstream no tau nthuav dav tas li, uas yuav coj cov ntsiab lus tshiab rau kev lag luam tshuaj fluorous.
Tuam Tshoj Galaxy Securities thiab Guosen Securities ntseeg tias cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg siab yuav txuas ntxiv mus ua kom tus nqi hauv zos nce ntxiv, muaj kev cia siab txog cov phaj fluorite xws li fluorite -refrigerant.
Kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg phosphorus: Lub hom phiaj ntawm daim ntawv thov downstream tau nthuav dav
Xyoo 2022, cuam tshuam los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev siv hluav taws xob "kev tswj hwm ob npaug", lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv tshuaj phosphorus muaj peev xwm tsim khoom tsawg thiab tus nqi siab, tso lub hauv paus kev ua tau zoo rau kev lag luam tshuaj phosphorus.
Cov phosphate ore yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb rau kev lag luam tshuaj phosphate. Cov khoom siv tom qab suav nrog cov chiv phosphate, cov phosphate qib zaub mov, lithium iron phosphate thiab lwm yam khoom. Ntawm lawv, lithium iron phosphate yog pawg vam meej tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam tshuaj phosphate tam sim no.
Nws nkag siab tias txhua 1 tuj ntawm cov hlau phosphate yog tsim los ntawm 0.5 ~ 0.65 tons, thiab 0.8 tons ntawm ib qho ammonium phosphate. Kev loj hlob sai ntawm lithium hlau phosphate thov raws li cov saw hlau kev lag luam mus rau qhov kev sib kis upstream yuav ua rau muaj kev thov rau phosphate ore hauv thaj chaw ntawm lub zog tshiab. Hauv cov txheej txheem tsim khoom tiag tiag, lub roj teeb lithium hlau phosphate 1gWh xav tau 2500 tons ntawm lithium hlau phosphate orthopedic cov ntaub ntawv, sib raug rau 1440 tons ntawm phosphate (folding, uas yog, P2O5 = 100%). Nws tau kwv yees tias los ntawm xyoo 2025, qhov kev thov rau hlau phosphate yuav ncav cuag 1.914 lab tons, thiab qhov kev thov sib raug rau phosphate ore yuav yog 1.11 lab tons, suav txog kwv yees li 4.2% ntawm tag nrho cov kev thov rau phosphate ore.
Daim Ntawv Tshaj Tawm Tshawb Fawb Txog Guosen Securities ntseeg tias ntau yam tseem ceeb yuav ua ke txhawb kom muaj kev vam meej ntawm cov khoom siv phosphorus. Los ntawm qhov pom ntawm sab saud, nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev nce qib ntawm kev nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam yav tom ntej thiab kev nyuaj siab ntawm kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, nws sab kev muab khoom yuav txuas ntxiv mus nruj, thiab cov yam ntxwv tsis txaus ntawm cov peev txheej yog qhov tseem ceeb. Cov nqi zog txawv teb chaws sib tshooj tau nce siab los txhawb cov nqi siab ntawm cov tshuaj phosphorus txawv teb chaws, thiab qhov zoo ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov tuam txhab hauv tsev tau tshwm sim. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev kub ntxhov thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev vam meej ntawm kev ua liaj ua teb yuav txhawb kom muaj kev thov rau cov chiv phosphate; kev loj hlob ntawm cov roj teeb hlau phosphate kuj tseem muab kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev thov rau phosphate ore.
Capital Securities tau hais tias qhov ua rau muaj kev nce nqi ntawm cov peev txheej thoob ntiaj teb yog lub voj voog ntawm kev tsim khoom, suav nrog kev siv nyiaj tsis txaus hauv 5-10 xyoo dhau los ntawm cov peev txheej hauv av, suav nrog kev tsis muaj kev siv nyiaj hauv 5-10 xyoo dhau los, thiab kev tso tawm cov peev txheej tshiab yuav siv sijhawm ntev. Kev ntxhov siab ntawm lub xyoo phosphorus ore muab khoom nyuaj rau txo qis.
Cov kev lag luam qhib qhov chaw ntseeg tias txoj kev siv hluav taws xob tshiab tau txuas ntxiv mus rau kev vam meej siab thiab tau cia siab txog cov ntaub ntawv ntws los xws li cov tshuaj phosphorus tau ntev.
Aramid：Kev tsim kho tshiab los ua kom tiav kev lag luam me me
Nrog rau kev txhim kho sai ntawm kev lag luam cov ntaub ntawv, aramid tau nyiam ntau dua los ntawm kev lag luam peev.
Cov fiber aramid yog ib qho ntawm peb cov fiber ua tau zoo hauv ntiaj teb. Nws suav nrog hauv kev lag luam tshiab hauv tebchaws thiab tseem yog cov khoom siv zoo rau kev txhawb nqa mus sij hawm ntev ntawm lub tebchaws. Thaum Lub Plaub Hlis 2022, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology thiab National Development and Reform Commission tau sib koom ua ke hais tias nws yog qhov tsim nyog los txhim kho qib kev tsim cov fiber ua tau zoo thiab txhawb nqa kev siv aramid hauv thaj chaw siab.
Cov aramid muaj ob hom qauv ntawm aramid thiab nruab nrab, thiab cov khoom siv downstream tseem ceeb suav nrog cov kev lag luam fiber fiber cable. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau tias xyoo 2021, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb aramid loj yog US $ 3.9 billion, thiab nws xav tias yuav nce mus txog US $ 6.3 billion hauv xyoo 2026, nrog rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm 9.7%.
Nyob rau xyoo tas los no, kev lag luam fiber ntau optical cable hauv Suav teb tau tsim kho sai thiab tau dhia mus rau hauv qhov chaw thawj zaug hauv ntiaj teb. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology, tag nrho qhov ntev ntawm lub teb chaws optical cable kab hauv xyoo 2021 tau txog 54.88 lab kilometers, thiab qhov kev thov rau cov khoom lag luam aramid siab heev ze li ntawm 4,000 tons, uas 90% tseem vam khom rau kev xa khoom tuaj. Txij li thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2022, tag nrho qhov ntev ntawm lub teb chaws optical cable kab tau txog 57.91 lab kilometers, nce 8.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Yangtze Securities, Huaxin Securities, thiab Guosen Securities ntseeg tias hais txog kev siv, cov qauv ntawm cov khoom siv tiv thaiv tus kheej hauv nruab nrab ntawm aramid yuav maj mam nce qib, thiab qhov kev thov rau aramid hauv kev sib txuas lus kho qhov muag thiab roj hmab yuav tseem muaj zog. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev thov ua lag luam rau lithium -electrodermilida txheej lag luam yog dav. Nrog rau kev ua kom nrawm ntawm cov kev xaiv hauv tsev ntawm aramid, qib ntawm domesticization yav tom ntej yuav nce ntxiv ntau, thiab cov khoom lag luam cuam tshuam tsim nyog tau txais kev saib xyuas.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Ib Hlis-10-2023