Tsis ntev los no, los ntawm roj av nyoos, yav tom ntej mus rau cov khoom siv raw, txawm tias cov khoom thauj siab heev, uas tau vwm rau yuav luag peb xyoos, kuj tau qhia rau cov tub luam tias peb tau pe hawm. Muaj xov xwm tas li tias lub ntiaj teb tau pib nkag mus rau hauv kev ua tsov rog nqi. Puas yog kev ua lag luam tshuaj lom neeg yuav zoo xyoo no?
Txo 30%! Cov khoom xa tuaj qis dua qib ua ntej muaj kev sib kis!
Tus nqi thauj khoom ntawm Shanghai Container Freight Rate Index (SCFI) tau poob qis heev. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau tias tus nqi tshiab kawg tau poob qis 11.73 cov ntsiab lus mus rau 995.16, poob qis dua 1,000 cim thiab rov qab mus rau qib ua ntej muaj kev sib kis ntawm COVID-19 hauv xyoo 2019. Tus nqi thauj khoom ntawm Western American kab thiab European kab tau qis dua tus nqi, thiab sab hnub tuaj American kab kuj tseem muaj teeb meem nyob ib puag ncig tus nqi, nrog rau kev poob qis ntawm 1% thiab 13%!
Txij li qhov nyuaj ntawm kev tau txais lub thawv hauv xyoo 2021 mus rau qhov muaj ntau lub thawv khoob, kev thauj mus los ntawm ntau lub chaw nres nkoj hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws tau maj mam poob qis, ntsib qhov kev nyuaj siab ntawm "kev sib sau ua ke ntawm cov thawv khoob".
Cov xwm txheej ntawm txhua qhov chaw nres nkoj:
Cov chaw nres nkoj hauv South China xws li Nansha Port, Shenzhen Yantian Port thiab Shenzhen Shekou Port txhua tus tab tom ntsib kev nyuaj siab ntawm kev sib sau ua ke ntawm cov thawv khoob. Ntawm lawv, Yantian Port muaj 6-7 txheej ntawm cov thawv khoob, uas yuav tawg qhov ntau tshaj plaws ntawm cov thawv khoob hauv chaw nres nkoj hauv 29 xyoo.
Chaw nres nkoj Shanghai, Chaw nres nkoj Ningbo Zhoushan kuj nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej ntawm cov thawv khoob ntau.
Cov chaw nres nkoj ntawm Los Angeles, New York thiab Houston txhua tus muaj cov thawv khoob ntau heev, thiab cov chaw nres nkoj ntawm New York thiab Houston tab tom ua kom thaj chaw rau kev tso cov thawv khoob ntau ntxiv.
Xyoo 2022 kev thauj mus los hauv hiav txwv tsis muaj 7 lab TEU thawv, thaum qhov kev thov tau txo qis txij li Lub Kaum Hli 2022, thiab lub thawv cua raug tshem tawm. Tam sim no, kwv yees tias ntau dua 6 lab TEUs muaj cov thawv ntau dhau. Vim tias tsis muaj kev txiav txim, ntau lub tsheb thauj khoom tau nres hauv lub pier hauv tebchaws, thiab cov tuam txhab logistics upstream thiab downstream kuj hais tias kev ua tau zoo tau txo qis 20% xyoo-rau-xyoo! Thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2023, lub tuam txhab sau tau txo 27% peev xwm ntawm Asia -Europe kab. Ntawm tag nrho 690 lub sijhawm taug kev ntawm cov kev lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm cov kev lag luam tseem ceeb hla Dej Hiav Txwv Pacific, Dej Hiav Txwv Atlantic thiab Asia, thiab Hiav Txwv Mediterranean, hauv lub lim tiam 7 (Lub Ob Hlis 13 (Lub Ob Hlis 13 Txij li 19), 82 lub sijhawm taug kev tau raug tshem tawm ntawm 5 lub lis piam (Lub Peb Hlis 13 txog 19), thiab tus nqi tshem tawm suav txog 12%.
Ntxiv mus, raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lis Kev Cai: Thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom xa tawm mus rau Tebchaws Meskas tau poob qis 25.4%. Tom qab qhov kev poob qis no yog tias cov xaj tsim khoom los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas tau poob qis 40%! Cov xaj hauv Tebchaws Meskas rov qab los thiab lwm lub teb chaws cov xaj hloov pauv, lub peev xwm ntau dhau tseem niaj hnub nce ntxiv.
Caij nplooj zeeg 150,000 yuan! Kev thov kom txias, cov ntaub ntawv raw tag nrho swb!
▶ Lithium carbonate:
Xyoo tas los no, kev ua lag luam lithium carbonate tau nce siab heev, thiab txawm tias tus nqi tau nce mus txog 600,000 yuan / ton. Tam sim no nws kuj tau pib "qis qis". Txij li thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis tas los, tus nqi ntawm lithium carbonate tau pib poob qis. Txog tam sim no tau poob ntawm 582000 yuan / ton mus rau 429700 yuan / ton ze, poob ntau dua 152000 yuan, poob 26%.
Lithium carbonate domestic mixed nqe 2022-11-22-2023-02-20
Qib: Qib muaj kev lag luam
Qee cov neeg sab hauv hais tias tom qab rov qab los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom hauv qab tsis muaj kev txaus siab rau kev khaws cia khoom, qhov ntim xaj tsis tau zoo dua, ua rau cov tub luam nruab nrab kom rho nyiaj tsuas yog txo tau tus nqi ntawm cov khoom muag, kev lag luam lithium carbonate poob qis dua thiab dua, cov neeg siv khoom hauv qab tam sim no feem ntau yog siv cov khoom muag.
▶ PC:
Tus nqi sib xyaw hauv tsev PC 2022-11-22-2023-02-20
Qib siab tshaj plaws, 99.9% cov ntsiab lus
Txij li thaum Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav, kev tsim kho thiab kev tsim khoom ntawm kev lag luam PC hauv tebchaws tau nce siab, tab sis txij li Lub Ob Hlis, kev ua lag luam PC tau poob qis, lub lim tiam dhau los tus nqi Hoobkas ntawm cov PC hauv tebchaws kuj tau txo qis, txij li 300 txog 400 yuan, qhov kev thov hauv qab tsis tuaj yeem ua raws li, qhov chaw ua lag luam tsaus ntuj yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb.
▶N-Butanol:
N-butanol Shandong tus nqi tsim khoom 2022-11-22-2023-02-20 cov khoom zoo heev
Txij li thaum kawg Lub Ib Hlis, kev lag luam N-butanol pib poob qis, thiab txij li thaum kawg Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, tus nqi tau poob qis 1000 yuan / ton, qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog vim qhov kev thov tsis txaus, cov chaw tsim khoom muaj ntau cov khoom muag, kev muag khoom siab nyob rau hauv kev nce nqi. Txawm li cas los xij, Guanghua Jun ntseeg tias n-butanol tseem muaj txiaj ntsig zoo, cov neeg siv khoom hauv qab yuav them rau cov xaj ntawm qhov sib tham, yog tias qhov kev pom zoo zoo dua, tus nqi tseem yuav tshwm sim kho.
Kev tshem tawm kev ua txhaum ntawm cov saw hlau xa khoom
Kev lag luam tawm txawv teb chaws tab tom ntsib teeb meem
Kev lag luam textile hauv qab kuj raug kev txom nyem. Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm textile thiab khaub ncaws tau loj hlob 2.6% hauv cov nyiaj daus las hauv xyoo 2022, tab sis qhov no feem ntau yog vim muaj kev loj hlob siab hauv ib nrab xyoo thawj zaug, nrog rau feem ntau ntawm cov xaj tau txais ua ntej Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav 2022. Tom qab ntawd cov khoom xa tawm tau poob qis hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob vim tsis muaj xaj, thiab hauv peb lub hlis twg tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tau sau tseg ob tus lej poob qis rau tag nrho peb lub hlis.
Nkag mus rau xyoo 2023, qhov xwm txheej yog ib nrab. Qhov uas nyiam kho txoj cai tiv thaiv kev sib kis, kev lag luam hauv tsev, kev txhawb nqa ntawm tsoomfwv hauv zos, thiab cov tuam txhab textile thiab khaub ncaws muaj ntau lub sijhawm. Qhov uas txhawj xeeb yog tias qhov chaw ib puag ncig thoob ntiaj teb nyuaj thiab qhov kev thov rau kev siv txawv teb chaws tseem qeeb. Nws xav tias cov xaj lag luam txawv teb chaws yuav tsis zoo dua.
Xyoo 2023, kev thov khoom thoob ntiaj teb tseem tsis tau muaj zog thiab muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo rau kev xa khoom ntawm kuv lub teb chaws. Raws li International Monetary Fund (IMF) kwv yees, kev loj hlob ntawm US GDP (GDP hauv Suav teb) xyoo 2023 yuav tsuas yog 1.4% (2.0% hauv xyoo 2022), thiab GDP kev loj hlob ntawm thaj tsam euro yuav tsuas yog 0.7% (3.5% hauv xyoo 2022.5% hauv xyoo 2022), Thiab ob cheeb tsam no yog cov lag luam xa khoom loj tshaj plaws rau peb cov khoom siv textile thiab khaub ncaws.
Fan Lei, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tseem ceeb ntawm National Federation of Macro, tau hais tias qhov chaw sab nraud tsis ruaj khov zuj zus tuaj, thiab Tebchaws Meskas tseem tab tom txhawb nqa cov khoom xa tuaj rau Sinicization. Qhov no kuj yog qhov kev cov nyom uas ntsib kev xa khoom xyoo no. Thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, Tebchaws Meskas cov khaub ncaws Suav tuaj yeem poob yuav luag ib nrab xyoo-rau-xyoo, txo qis 47%, thiab qhov ntim khoom xa tuaj poob qis 38% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Txij Lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022, Tuam Tshoj suav nrog kev lag luam ntawm Tebchaws Meskas cov khaub ncaws xa tuaj los ntawm 24.1% ib xyoos dhau los mus rau 22%.
Guosheng Securities tau tshaj tawm daim ntawv tshawb fawb qhia tias cov khoom lag luam khaub ncaws hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Asmeskas tam sim no nyob rau theem siab, thiab lub suab ntawm tus tswv hom yog kev txuag. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm US Department of Commerce's Census Bureau, cov khw muag khaub ncaws lag luam wholesale thiab khw muag khoom hauv Tebchaws Meskas txuas ntxiv nce hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo 2021. Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis 2022, cov khoom lag luam wholesale / khw muag khoom tau nce 68.3% / 24.1% xyoo-rau-xyoo, uas tau dhau ntau dua hauv tib lub sijhawm ua ntej muaj kev sib kis.
Kev Txhim Kho Kev Ua Rog Thoob Ntiaj Teb
Tuam Tshoj thiab Tebchaws Meskas "txais kev txiav txim" qhib?
Lub peev xwm tau txo qis thiab cov nqi tau poob qis heev, thiab qee lub tuam txhab hauv tsev twb tau pib hnub so rau yuav luag ib nrab xyoo. Nws tuaj yeem pom tias qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev thov tsis zoo thiab kev ua lag luam tsis muaj zog yog qhov pom tseeb. Kev teeb tsa kev ua tsov rog, kev tsis txaus ntawm cov peev txheej, thiab kev txhim kho kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, cov teb chaws tab tom txeeb lub khw tom qab muaj kev sib kis los txhawb lub teb chaws txoj kev lag luam.
Ntawm lawv, Tebchaws Meskas kuj tau nce kev nqis peev hauv Tebchaws Europe thaum lub sijhawm ua kom lub tebchaws rov tsim kho dua tshiab. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb, kev nqis peev ntawm Tebchaws Meskas hauv Tebchaws Meskas hauv ib nrab xyoo 2022 yog US $ 73.974 billion, thaum kuv lub tebchaws kev nqis peev hauv Tebchaws Meskas tsuas yog 148 lab daus las. Cov ntaub ntawv no qhia tau tias Tebchaws Meskas xav tsim kom muaj kev xa khoom ntawm Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas, uas kuj qhia tau tias kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb tab tom hloov pauv, thiab kev lag luam Sino-Tebchaws Meskas yuav nce mus rau qhov kev sib cav "kev txiav txim siab".
Yav tom ntej, tseem muaj kev hloov pauv loj heev hauv kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg. Qee tus neeg hauv kev lag luam hais tias kev xav tau sab nraud tau cuam tshuam rau kev muab khoom sab hauv. Kev ciaj sia ntawm cov lag luam hauv tsev yuav ntsib thawj qhov kev sim ciaj sia hnyav tom qab muaj kev sib kis.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Peb Hlis-01-2023