Saib rau pem hauv ntej rau kev ua lag luam styling hauv xyoo 2023, cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam ntseeg tias kev ua lag luam yuav nyob rau hauv qhov kev ua haujlwm siab thiab qis. Xyoo no tseem yog ib xyoos thaum lub peev xwm tsim khoom ntawm styrene tau nthuav dav sai. Qhov kev sib tshooj ib nrab xyoo tiv thaiv kev pov tseg tau dhau lawm. Cov khoom txawv teb chaws lossis cheb kom tswj hwm kev ua lag luam hauv tsev. Tib lub sijhawm, lub peev xwm downstream raug tso tawm. Besium hauv qab 2022, qhov nyiaj tau los nyuaj rau nce.
Kev loj hlob ntawm cov zis yuav yog 17%
"Xyoo 2022, lub peev xwm styrene hauv tsev tseem nyob rau ntawm txoj kev loj hlob siab, thiab tus nqi loj hlob yuav nce mus txog 20%, uas yuav dhau los ua cov khoom lag luam ceev tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam. Vim yog qhov kev tso tawm sai ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm styrene, qhov kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev muag khoom yuav nce ntxiv, thiab tus nqi siv peev xwm yuav tsis zoo li sai tau. Nws xav tias nws yuav nyob ib puag ncig 78%. "Kim Lianchuang tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas Wang Li ntseeg.
Wang Li tau hais tias xyoo 2023, cov khoom siv tshiab xws li Lianyungang Petrochemical, Zibo Junchen, Guangdong Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical yuav raug muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom, thiab qhov kev loj hlob ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom ntawm styrene yuav tsum ncav cuag 23%. Yog tias qhov kev ua haujlwm raug ncua vim yog kev ncua ntawm kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov zis styrene xyoo no yuav yog 17%.
Cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov no, kev ua lag luam styrene xyoo no khiav lossis muaj qhov siab thiab qis, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav tsawg dua 2022. Tshwj xeeb, qhov kev kwv yees ntawm cov nqi nce hauv lub quarter thib ob. Ntawm ib sab tes, vim yog kev nthuav dav ntawm styrene xyoo no, qhov kev nyuaj siab rau kev tsim khoom hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg yog qhov loj dua, thiab qhov kev thov rau superimposed thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival tau qaug zog. Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov kev thov hauv lub quarter thib ob tau xav tias yuav rov zoo, thiab qhov kev tsim khoom downstream kuj yuav ua raws li. Hauv peb thiab plaub lub hlis, kev muab khoom ntawm styrene yog nyob rau theem siab thiab qhov kev thov maj mam qaug zog, thiab tus nqi yuav poob qis. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog sau tseg tias thaum lub sijhawm kev saib xyuas ntawm lub cuab yeej styrene, tej zaum yuav muaj nthwv dej ntawm kev nce nqi, tab sis qhov nce yog txwv.
Ntxiv mus, lwm yam uas cuam tshuam rau qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam styrene xyoo no yog tias kev tawm tsam kev pov tseg yuav xaus. Thaum Lub Rau Hli 22, 2018, Ministry of Commerce tau tshaj tawm qhov kev txiav txim siab zaum kawg ntawm kev tshawb fawb tawm tsam kev pov tseg uas yog los ntawm Kaus Lim Qab Teb, Taiwan thiab Tebchaws Meskas. Tom qab qhov kev tawm tsam kev pov tseg xaus rau lub Rau Hli xyoo no, Tuam Tshoj, ua lub tebchaws siv khoom loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb styrene, yuav nyiam cov neeg tsim khoom styrene thoob ntiaj teb. Txawm hais tias lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm styrene hauv tsev raug tso tawm tas li thiab kev vam khom kev xa khoom tseem txo qis, kev ntws ntawm kev muab khoom yuav txuas ntxiv mus, thiab txoj kev arbitrage tshiab yuav maj mam tsim, lossis nws yuav muab kev nyuaj siab rau kev lag luam hauv tsev hauv ib lub sijhawm.
Qhov chaw khwv tau nyiaj tseem pheej nqaim zuj zus
Xyoo 2022, tshwj tsis yog kev lag luam ingenuylene hauv peb lub hlis twg, lub sijhawm seem yog qhov poob ntawm kev poob. Qhov kev poob theoretical txog li 1,000 yuan (tuj tus nqi, tib yam hauv qab no), nrog rau qhov nruab nrab ntawm 379 yuan hauv ib xyoos.
Han Xiaoxiao, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm Longzhong Information, ntseeg tias ntxiv rau qhov kev tso tawm tseem ceeb ntawm cov peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab, lwm qhov tseem ceeb yog tias tus nqi siab tseem txuas ntxiv mus rau qhov siab. Cov benzene ntshiab yog ib qho ntawm cov khoom siv tseem ceeb ntawm styrene, thiab nws cov nqi hloov pauv yog qhov tseem ceeb rau qhov sib txawv ntawm styrene.
Nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2022, tus nqi ntawm benzene ntshiab tau nce siab heev vim muaj kev muab khoom tsawg thiab tus nqi sab nraud siab heev, thiab qeeb qeeb hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej vim muaj kev tsis zoo thiab kev khaws cia ntawm cov khoom hauv chaw nres nkoj, nrog rau tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo ze li ntawm 9,000 yuan.
Ob xyoos dhau los no, qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi ntawm benzene ntshiab thiab styrene tau nqaim heev. Xyoo dhau los, qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi ntawm benzene ntshiab thiab styrene tau tswj hwm hauv 2000 ~ 2500 yuan, nqaim mus rau 1000 ~ 1500 yuan hauv ob xyoos dhau los, thiab qee zaum tsuas yog 200 ~ 500 yuan. Xyoo 2022, kev lag luam styrene saw nrog cov khoom lag luam zoo rau cov khoom siv raw kawg benzene ntshiab.
Xyoo 2023, tus nqi ntawm benzene ntshiab hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo lossis kev poob siab siab, ib nrab xyoo thib ob lossis kev pheej hmoo poob siab. Muaj ntau lub lag luam downstream ntawm benzene ntshiab. Los ntawm qhov pom ntawm kev siv feem pua, styrene tseem yog cov khoom loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev siv benzene ntshiab, suav txog li 47%. Tib lub sijhawm, xyoo no styrene muaj peev xwm txuas ntxiv nthuav dav sai, kev thov rau benzene ntshiab tseem nce channel. Hauv keeb kwm yav dhau los "ob chav carbon", vim yog kev lag luam coking ua haujlwm tsis txaus, kev sib txuas ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom txwv, xav tias xyoo no tus nqi ntawm benzene ntshiab yuav tswj tau qhov xwm txheej tiav siab.
Hauv kev tuav tus nqi siab ntxiv rau kev tuav, kev tsim khoom thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam styrene tseem tab tom ntsib kev nyuaj siab ntau dua, qhov chaw khwv tau nyiaj lossis yuav txuas ntxiv raug nias.
Kev sib txawv ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov tsis tsim nyog
Polystyeyrene (PS), Polystyeyrene plaub hau (EPS), Acryl-butadiene-Tartylene Tag Nrho Cov Peev Xwm (ABS) yog peb qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov styrene, suav txog ze li ntawm 70% ntawm tag nrho cov kev siv styrene. Cov neeg sab hauv ntseeg tias tag nrho cov peev xwm tsim khoom ntawm peb qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov downstream no xyoo no qis. Raws li kev cia siab ntawm kev txhim kho hauv sab hauv, yog tias cov downstream muaj kev cia siab txog kev siv cov khoom siv raw, qhov kev loj hlob tiag tiag ntawm ABS, PS, thiab EPS xav tias yuav yog 12%, 6%, thiab 3%, uas qis dua qhov kev loj hlob ntawm 17% ntawm styrene. Qhov no kuj txhais tau tias qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov ntawm styrene tseem nyuaj rau txo qis.
Xyoo 2023, kev muab khoom ntawm styrene maj mam puv. Txawm hais tias qhov kev thov xav tias yuav nce ntxiv, qhov kev loj hlob tsawg dua li qhov kev loj hlob ntawm styrene, thiab kev xa khoom yuav txuas ntxiv mus ua ib txoj hauv kev tseem ceeb rau kev txo qis kev tsim khoom thiab kev muag khoom kom txo qis kev tsim khoom thiab kev muag khoom. Hais txog kev xa khoom tuaj, nrog rau kev tshem tawm ntawm cov se tiv thaiv kev pov tseg ntawm styrene, Tuam Tshoj thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb cov se yuav poob qis heev. Nws xav tias tag nrho cov ntim khoom xa tuaj ntawm styrene hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej yuav nce me ntsis. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev nce ntawm styrene ntshuam yuav tsis loj dhau vim yog kev nce ntawm kev sib tw ntawm RMB.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Ob Hlis-16-2023